Will Hard Fork 19 Be a Knife In the Back?
Hard fork 19 has taken effect and everyone is celebrating a huge boost in their currently active posts, but how long will the celebrations last? I see a couple of problems that could soon be taking a drastic toll.
What will happen to the price of Steem and SBD?
One of the things I can see happening is a huge dip in the price of Steem and SBD. Everyone will be celebrating having their pending posts having a huge boost but it won't take long until these SBD's start flooding the market. This will, of course result in a lowering of the price of SBD's but it won't take long until people figure out that they can trade their SBDs for Steem on the internal market and the price of Steem drops as well. However, this problem will likely correct itself shortly as the recent influx of high post payouts will likely not last much longer.
Less Votes for Minnows
An even larger problem that I can foresee happening is the lack of votes. While votes are now worth 4x as much, you will only have 1/4 of the amount of votes. Sure, many of us can adjust our voting percentage to make up for this fact, but anyone with under a million vests right now doesn't have a slider and can't adjust their voting percentage. This leaves them with only 10 votes per day. This will make it much harder for minnows to support each other and get to that magical 500 SP where they have a slider and can support the content creators they believe in. So, what was sold as a means of giving minnows greater influence over the reward pool at best has little effect and most likely will actually lower their influence over the reward pool as they are now drastically reduced in who they can support. This will lead to an even greater increase in the circle jerks already rampant on steemit and can make it much harder for minnows to get ahead.
Unfortunately, these things that will make it harder for new users to get established on the platform will probably discourage many people from using it soon as well as making many minnows give up on the whole process. Instead of leveling the playing field, this seems to make establishing yourself on steemit even more of an upstream stream against a harder current than it already was.
I do have some ideas on things that can be done to solve this but I want to see how things play out before I reveal the details. Perhaps my fears will be unfounded and everything will work out fine. However, I see this turning out like raising the minimum wage to $15 will where there will be a very brief time that people will see a greater income that will quickly turn into a mess that was worse off than before.
Be sure to join us on the fastest growing steem-related discord server... 500+ members in the past 2 weeks! https://discord.gg/RRDzn6c
Can't wait to see how this shakes out. The post values went up so much, I am expecting all kinds of interesting unintended consequences! Steem already smashed through light support at .00080 btc.
I think it's going to be the other way around, because yoy get more trades on the blockchain due to the hight tranfers.. Doesn't that define the payout to some extent..
Hopefully it at least keeps the 1usd peg as that would be great.
Cheers and much love for all the steemians.
Hope yal doing well after hf 19
Indeed , it make sens what u r saying !
But today we are celebrating 😅
amazing post!
This is ridiculous!!!HF 19 is the best thing that happened to steemians yet...
I'm screaming like a little girl!
I even made $80 on 1 comment recently!
Hey! I feel like I bump into you everywhere. Haha!
Hope you're doing fine as well ;) it was nice to learn more about you in your last post :)
Followed/upvoted/appreciated! I posted something similar to this on my blog asking a bunch of questions and raising some concerns. Thanks for this!
Its all about writing good content, and minnows can purchase steem on the market, that will help their voting power. Also as more people here about steemit they will invest on the market and that should help.
This post is worth way more than the angsty one I posted earlier saying the same thing.
Spared my last upvote of the day, resteemed, and i hope you tell me what you are planning soon.
Today was strange. Glad to have someone talking sense.
Those are precisely the worries I have over this. I'm worried this will cause a huge bubble that will burst in our faces.
I feel like there is so much more money being made now, really quickly, and out of nowhere, that I feel it's inevitable that the price of Steem and SBD will crash.
I mean, there are users who could make between 300$ and 800$ a day, just by upvoting their own comments and posts.
That's a ridiculous amount of money just by, basically, clicking on a little blue arrow.
To play Devil's advocate...
Perhaps, it is not a "ridiculous amount"? The rich have deprived you of the great wealth that exists on Earth by paying you "ridiculous" low wages for all your blood sweat and tears. Therefore, these "rediculous amounts" are only relative to your experience.
When a whale pockets $1000 for upvoting his own post, he doesn't think it is rediculous. He probably complains about the annoyance of having to push a button to sweep it into his account. Don't they have bots these days to do this drudge work??
I upvoted myself here as test, and my vote effectively went from like 0.01 to 0.13. That is an increase of over a 1000%!
That some great depth of thinking... only time will tell but after all this excitement, things will settle back down to normal :)
the only solution to this that i have come up with yet is to invest a certain amount of money and buy the steem that will likely flood the markets very soon. Some of the biggest whales are already cashing out as they saw it coming. HF 19 was only hyped for the first week will be the title in future.
That's probably a good solution... it is certainly a good time to buy as I think it will recover rather quickly.
I voted more than 10 times in 30 minutes after HF19, so I dont think there is any voting cap, you just consume your weight. So what, Ill keep voting til its zero... but it never gets to zero.
At the end of the day, if you are giving votes to what you see that is good, you're handing money over to another person, potentially. Other times, even when your power is 0 then you are still encouraging, right? I am still new and getting a hang of all of the things. Thanks. :)
It takes 5 days for your voting power to recharge 100% and each upvote removes 2% now vs .5% before. You right now can vote more than 10 today but if you do it everyday you will quickly run out of power. I just checked steemnow.com and your voting power is already under 65% which means it will take almost 2 days to completely recharge if you don't vote any more.
That in itself is kind of discouraging and makes me feel like I am doing something wrong. Other than voting randomly, as I like something. I kind of wish with that being the case that there was another option to be had to at least show that there was approval for the post. Now I need to go find out how to do this, lol. I don't even want to know what mine is, do I?
I didnt start from 100%, but that really doesnt matter. Are you saying if I get to 1.99% that I literally cannot upvote anything?
Someone told me the other day its 2% of your remaining power that is consumed.
My voting power is now 67.54% and I just upvoted @rumdancer, now its 66.20%, I lost 1.34%, not 2%. Looks like I lost 2% of my remaining power, so that means I can vote as much as I like and never run out, my upvotes will just be worth a minimal amount.
At least thats how it looks to me, have you tested it with different results?
To argue to the absurd...
There is a physical limit to how small a number a computer can handle without having to create special hardware to manipulate extremely small numbers.
You can experiment with your own computer. The calculator on mine fails at 0.00000000000000000000000000000001. There is no 0.000000000000000000000000000000010 because the keyboard is frozen.
This is a crude example, but I think you get the idea.