Front Royal Gas Price Analysis

As projected, the mode (most common price) has moved from $2.05 to $2.15. This is a strong indication that the 60 some gas stations within the 15 mile radius wishes to move the price further above.

The median and average price are currently both the same $2.07, which means gas stations are moving efficiently, a strong indication that prices will slowly move towards the $2.15 mode.

As the volatility dwindles, gas stations will prepare for a breakout from the $2.05 - $2.15 range. With the 10-price moving average remaining above the overall average, prices will likely see a continued rise.

A strong indication of falling prices would be median prices rising above average prices, as that would be gas stations trying to place prices above where prices actually are going.

The fact that no gas stations have attempted to push prices above the $2.15 mode shows indication of a possible top with further sideways action between $2.05 and $2.15 as outlier gas stations consolidate and the market tests the waters on both ends.

In summary, I rank sideways prices between $2.05 and $2.15 as most likely, prices rising above $2.15 as likely, and prices falling as least likely.

If I see 3 gas stations in the area listing prices above $2.15, I will find the cheapest gas in the area and DCA some more in preparation for continued escalation in prices. Otherwise, I will continue to purchase gas below $2 when necessary with bleak hopes of finding prices in the $1.80s range.

As usual, not financial advice, just a nerd running some numbers. Do your own research for the most accurate predictions.