When winning in the market isn't always a matter of luck

I saw a specific portfolio, one of those publicly available for review, that has absolutely every winning trade. Not one, not two, but every single one. And we're not talking about small amounts, but millions of dollars in trades. This portfolio, according to what can be seen on Hyperdash (for anyone who wants to check it out, it's 0xc2a30212a8DdAc9e123944d6e29FADdCe994E5f2), has earned over $18 million since it started trading. Right now, it has unrealized losses of around $1.5 million, but even with that, it still shows impressive results. And of course, this makes you wonder… how is it possible to have such a high win rate in such a volatile market?

This is where today's reflection comes in: when you trade with insider information, it's hard to lose. In traditional markets, this is something that is punishable by law, precisely because it breaks with fairness. If someone has early access to relevant information—for example, an economic announcement, a merger, or an upcoming regulation—they clearly have an unfair advantage over other participants. Making a decision based on analysis or intuition is not the same as making one knowing what will happen.

But in the crypto world, the story is a bit different. Although everything seems more "free" and decentralized, there are also movements that reveal some players have information or connections that give them an advantage. And while there's no central entity to sanction such behavior, the results sometimes speak for themselves. Recently, we saw how some large wallets opened short positions just before the market crash triggered by Trump's announcements and the new tariffs on China. In other words, someone knew something most people didn't.

In these cases, the line between advanced technical analysis and advance information becomes very thin. And while it can't be proven with certainty, the coincidences end up being too precise to ignore. What strikes me most is that, without clear regulation in the crypto world, these situations become part of the "game," and as a small investor, one can only observe how others anticipate market movements with almost surgical precision.

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I'm not saying it's all manipulation, because there are also extremely good traders with experience, powerful algorithms, and well-designed strategies. But it's also undeniable that in this ecosystem, some have access to information that simply isn't available to everyone. And that, while not always illegal, is still unfair. So yes, when you trade with insider information, losing isn't so easy… but winning that way isn't much of an achievement either.

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_{Posted using SteemX}