NYC Washout Today Long Range Discussion
NYC Washout Today Long Range Discussion
Good morning everyone. Rain. Lots of Rain. If you love rain, I have the forecast for you. We have a nasty day unfolding here today, with a large batch of light to moderate rain leaving the area; and areas of rain behind it ahead of the cold front that'll swing through. This is our pattern and it's locked in for a while, which I will go into for the last segment of this forecast below.
SATELLITE
We take a brief break today from the steady rain, but clouds stick around. Stiff easterlies will help keep things feeling raw, then the cold front will swing by and amp up the rain again. Some areas could see a rumble or two of thunder, and many areas will see a fairly gusty, heavy batch of rain move through as the cold front makes a pass. Highs today in the low 40's at best.
For tomorrow, we'll have morning clouds and the slight chance of a sprinkle. Partial clearing will take place during the afternoon, then the winds will kick up. Highs tomorrow will be in the mid to upper 40's, and wind gusts in the 25-30mph realm will help keep things feeling chilly.
New Year's Eve isn't looking any better wind-wise, and don't be shocked if you see a brief flurry in Manhattan at some point. Temps around party time will be in the low to mid 30's, and those wind gusts will give it your traditional, cold NYE feel, even though we'll be slightly above average low temp-wise.
New Year's Day is looking average for this time of year, but the wind machine stays on and it'll feel chilly. Highs in the low 40's.
Thursday remains the best day of the week as that wind finally settles down, the sun remains, and we're in the mid to upper 40's. We'll cloud up Thursday night with our next system approaching, and more rain will move in for Friday where we are expecting another washout like today. Look for mid to upper 40's again, and rain heavy at times.
Next weekend looks like a split, with Sunday being the better of the two days. I think we dry out very early on Saturday, but that's our transition day as opposed to full sunshine on Sunday.
In the long range, the jet stream continues to take our systems well to our west and north. This is not a snow friendly pattern and if you want to go strictly by the models, there's no snow prospects into mid to late January. However, we here at NYCweatherNow don't follow the models as gospel, and point out a few things the models can't.
Yes, the pattern is very hostile towards any major snows in the NYC area. However, and I reiterate, it doesn't mean we can't get anything. I'll continue to watch each system very closely. We have plenty of cold air available and each rainy system is bringing in cooler or cold enough air close to the area to support snow when they pass. These systems are also having issues clearing the Southeast and the Gulf in a timely manner; so if anything gets hung up and a wave forms, that could be our window if one of these waves heads into the Northeast.
We also cannot rule out something very powerful down the road that gives us rain, but jolts the jet stream and changes the pattern; or a Pacific typhoon that has the same effect when it goes post-tropical and into the higher latitudes. We've seen this happen before.
This is something the models cannot do or predict, which is why the human element is still very important in terms of forecasting. Again, we are in a snow-hostile pattern and things are not looking good for snow lovers, but it doesn't mean we can't catch lightning in a bottle or flip the pattern in a meteorological instant.
Please note that with regards to any tropical storms or hurricanes, should a storm be threatening, please consult your local National Weather Service office or your local government officials about what action you should be taking to protect life and property.
Posted from my blog with SteemPress : https://www.nycweathernow.com/nyc-washout-today-long-range-discussion/