BTC price analysis longer term bearish perspective
Hello,
My name is Rokas. I'm a student of finance. I've been interrested in financial markets for about 3 years now. On my own time I chart and trade markets. I'm a relative rookie in this field. I did lose some money in the early days but know I have become consistently profitable and I'm slowly and steadily gaining it back. Now I mostly trade commodities. Gold, silver, natgas etc. Yet like most other traders I've been attracted to bitcoin by the volatility. Sure the fundamental/political aspect of it is appealing. But right now I think the volatility is here due to the speculative craze. At first I found it hard to chart bitcoin. Now that the market has matured a little it's more clearer of what's happening. So I made these a while ago but did not post them.
Disclaimer: This is not investment advice. I'm just a guy drawing lines on charts and sharing my oppinion on them. Trading in financial markets involves considerable risk. If you've never done this consider trading a paper account first. Learn to control risk trough managing your capital. Never invest any money you can't afford to lose. Before executing any action in the market do your on due dilingence and never follow anyone blindly.
I don't use this weekly chart anymore, since it doesn't work the best for me.
Price followed my charts pretty well, and I made some money whilst trading eth and btc the last month.
So now that I feel more confident with my analysis I want to share it with people here interested in the price action of BTC.
Here's what I see now:
I'm basing this bearish move on account of the price still having a long way to go on the weekly tsi and rsi to reset the sentiment.
The funny thing with BTC is that we can reach 5k and still be in a stong uptrend...
Thank you for your time. I hope you liked this analysis:)
Leave comment if you've liked what you see and want more:)
P.S. I'm long BTC from 8k going for ride to 10-11k for now.
I welcome every new technical analysis, so I liked yours too. I am bearish for the short term and expect a lower low, although I also agree we might have a bounce to about 10K before dropping below 7K. What do you think the bitcoin price will be like in a longer run (next 6 months)? Thanks!
p.s. By the way I found your comment on Haejin's blog and to be honest I also don't understand why he opposes other analysts (such as you) sending links to their blogs. I mean he has the right to ask for it, but it gives an answer to my question why was he making forecasts in the first place - to help the community of steemit and teach TA to other people, or to make profits from upvotes. Nothing wrong with making profits, but at least to me, judging by his videos from November last year, it looked as if his main goal was not the money. But I digress..Please, keep sharing your thoughts on the bitcoin price.
There's a cluster of strong resistance beetween 5900 to 4700. More precisely at @∼5900, @∼5400, @∼4700. I see price going down to that level in 2-3 months. At those prices we should get a significant bounce. (Kinda like we've seen it happen from 2013-12 to 2014-04, 3 drives down and then a big bounce). After that we'll need to re-evaluate the situation.
Thank you for your reply.
It could even drop to 3k and be in a up trend. Without Wall Street and the banks this is only going down. They will sit and watch it fall until it finds support in the community then they will buy.
I do feel like selling everything and waiting for it to find level but its all risk....lol
Bitcoin was $780 last jan and rose to 20k, thats 25x. 25x even 3000 is $75000. Would be so good if you could see even a few days into the future...lol
It could go down to 600-300 and still be in an uptrend. Realistically more like 4 to 2k in a very bearish case