Why McGregor will KO Mayweather and why I bet a very substantial amount on the money line (straight up) on Conor.

 Below I will describe my reasoning. It’s long so hold on...

1. Let’s start with the obvious. Conor is taller, weights more, and has a longer reach. This size difference is massive. You can see it when they face off during the conference calls. Floyd has never fought someone with this kind of size. In general, the larger man usually wins a fight.
2. Conor is 29 years old. Floyd is almost 41. Conor is in his prime while father time is significantly against Floyd. How much his skills have diminished will be seen but it’s safe to say that anything after 38-39 becomes quite noticeable. Example: Michael Jordan, the greatest basketball player ever, at 39 came off the bench playing for the Washington Wizards. Who are the Washington Wizards? No one knows… 
3. Floyd has not fought anyone in 2 years. While that may not be a problem for someone in his or her 20s or early 30s, at almost 41 that can be a very big deal. The body accelerates its decline as you age. Not having any body contact for that long of a period could pose as a huge risk to Floyd. (He’s been busy opening strip clubs, fake cryptocurrencies, and other fine ventures. You know, normal stuff.)
4. Floyd’s 49-0 record is not as significant as people think because as in the stock market, past performance does not guarantee future performance. All bets are off in this regard when you haven’t fought in 2 years and pushing 41. Conor has been active for many years. Activity is very important in competitive sports.
5. The commission agreed to allow the fighters to use 8-ounce gloves instead of 10-ounce gloves. Lighter gloves generally favor the harder puncher. In this case that would be Conor. At the bell, he will be about 20 lbs. heavier than Floyd. 18 out of 21 wins (86%) have been by TKO or KO. 
6. Analysts say that Conor has never boxed before and compare a superstar basketball player like Lebron fighting a boxer. There is no such comparison. Conor in fact started his fighting career boxing. Though there is no official record of fights, make no mistake he has been practicing this skill his entire career. Also, to say that MMA fighters can’t throw a punch is ridiculous. Anyone who has ever watched an MMA can confirm, at least 50% of the fight is standing up with fists. In these scenarios, you have to not only be worried about someone knocking you out but also shooting forward for the takedown. To only worry about fists and not being taken down may in fact be a huge benefit for Conor. In addition, having other skills other than just boxing like BJJ, wrestling, Maui Thai, etc. would actually be a benefit to a fighter because movements can be looked at from a different perspectives than from purely a boxing standpoint.  (As the saying goes, let’s look at it with a fresh set of eyes.)
7. Floyd has not fought many fights at 154 lbs. Most of his fights have been at lower weights. Conor’s natural fighting weight is 155 lbs. Given Floyd’s smallish frame, any additional weight almost becomes too heavy for him to make the quick movements he is known for.
8. Floyd has a history of having brittle hands especially late in his career. Boxing for 20+ years of course will lead to a deterioration in the hands. This would mean that a KO from Floyd (something that is already rare to see from him in the past) will most likely not happen. (Floyd hasn’t had a legitimate TKO or KO since 2007. The KO against Ortiz in 2011 was a sucker punch.) This would mean that Conor will have more time to get in heavy shots for the KO.
9. Conor sparred with a two-time boxing world champ Paulie Malignaggi and from all accounts from the photos and videos destroyed him. Paulie has been very critical about the release of this footage but the facts are facts. Other sparring partners have said that Paulie was badly concussed and so had to leave the training camp.
10. Floyd said that this will be his last fight. In general, when fighters in MMA or Boxing say that this will be there last fight, they usually lose. Something about a man’s or women’s mentality seems to change and they tend not to train as hard or even give it their all. Which leads me to the next point.
11. There are reports that Floyd is not training as hard as he used too. Who knows if these reports are true but the sources seem credible.
12. Floyd seemed visibly rattled during the world tour when facing off with Conor. Conor’s trash talk was obviously better than Floyd’s. This was evident when Floyd wore elevator shoes to the 3rd conference so he could be eye level with Conor after Conor called him small. If that doesn’t scream insecurity, I don’t know what does.
13. Floyd seems to be continually stirring controversy to get in Conor’s head. He accused Conor of racism which was not true and later back away from. He says Conor won’t make weight which has never happened in Conor’s career. There was a rumor that Conor was knocked out in sparring. When the alleged fighter who knocked Conor out was questioned, he said that he had never even met Conor. No such rumor or controversy has come out of Conor’s camp. Conor was not phased by any of these comments.
14. Conor offered to bet the purse (as in winner takes all). Floyd said no. At the minimum, this shows that Conor is not purely in it for the money. He is already wealthier than he ever thought he would be so more money does not equal more life satisfaction. If Floyd was so confident and if Conor truly did not have a shot, why not take the money? 
15. They say Floyd has more experience. This may be true but quantitative experience specifically in terms of number of years doesn’t really tell the whole story. For simplicity, let’s say you are a truck driver. You’ve been doing it for 20 years so you must be a master no doubt. But how many years in did it take for you to become a master? 4 years? 5 years? Is a truck driver with 20 years of experience better than a truck driver with 5 years of experience? Here’s another example. Would you rather have a doctor perform surgery with 30 years of experience or 10 years of experience? From this perspective I would say the doctor with 10 years of experience. With 10 years of experience you have probably seen it all but still young enough to continue learning. Floyd has been doing the same things forever and based on his training routines, nothing has changed in years. He goes through the same routines with the same coaches. Conor on the other hand continually seeks to improve and has a coaching staff always trying new things without damaging the body. They call it upgrading the software without damaging the hardware.(His main coach has a degree in mechanical engineer.) Thus I just don’t see how Floyd wins the experience category to any significant extent.  
16. Finally, Conor is an animal. Floyd has never faced someone of Conor's ferocious. Every part of this man's life has been built to create a this monster. From the beard elongating the jaw to the trash talk to the giant gorilla tattoo on his chest. This man is next level in the fighting game. Floyd will find out when they clash.

Conclusion: I don’t think this fight will be close at all. Most people you ask would agree but in favor of Floyd. I think it’s the exact opposite. I think Floyd is doing it for the money (owes IRS $24 million which is public record) and Conor is doing it for legacy/power. I expect Conor to KO Mayweather early but in case it takes longer I have bet Conor to win straight up (money line).  We’ll see August 26.

If you read this entire note, you have one of the longest attention spans on earth. Thanks for reading. 

Disclaimer: I am not your gambling adviser. This is not gambling advice.