CBR - Experimental Difficulty

in #gridcoin5 years ago (edited)

Since Constant Block Reward (CBR) has been introduced, average staking difficulty stabilized around 8 - this is what we get from averaging data published in the blockchain. I was interested how close real life staking frequency is.

Staking is highly probabilistic, we can only expect some events to happen, but there is no certainty. Small sample leads to huge variance and easily leads to wrong conclusions. As my balance is small, only a bit over 20k, I have found two addresses that seem to be online continuously - and fetched data from block explorer. All three have UTXOs of max 8k, usually even smaller, i.e. are quite well optimized for staking. All three had little to no downtime. Below smaple is still on the smallish side for analysis purposes.

  • Nov - about 3 weeks of November after CBR was introduced
  • Dec - full month
  • Jan - first 11 days of January, as today is only 12th

B - wallet-address balance, S - number of staked blocks.

BS - NovNov EDIFFS - DecDec EDIFFS - JanJan EDIFF
460 0001467.31479.3519.5
120 000397.13510.21210.6
2700059.2237.249.2

Note: the smallest balance in Nov - 21k, in Dec - 25k, in Jan - 35k.

Balance of 480k had easiest time to stake, although difference over 120k is small. Littile balance of ~ 25k had hard time in December. In fact wallet managed to find 4 blocks, not 2, but strange error happened and chain was immediately reorganized and 2 stakes not recognized by network.

  • Network difficulty experienced by wallets seems about 10 to 30 per cent higher than value calculated and published in Gridcoin - State of the Network.
  • Wallet with balance of ~100 000 should stake quite regularly, daily, but you can still got caught by black witch of probability
  • From the wallet with balance of ~30 000 you cannot expect regular staking, you might go a full month without staking once due to natural variance

EDIFF

Oh, you may wonder how experimental difficulty was calculated. The following relation should be true:

  • S/TB = B/N

where S - number of staked blocks, TB - total number of blocks in the period, B - wallet-address balance, N - total coins in the network. Thus:

  • EDIFF = N / 10 000 000 = B * TB / ( S * 10 000 000)
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Its been months since I have 4,5K GRC , no stake yet.
However, when I go to block explorer, I see wallets with even less than 1000 staking daily (not the same wallet).
I think removing the "ageing" part will "give" the staking (thus, network control) to the same wallets as "little" owners have no motivation
to join the network (will never stake...)

With 4,5K GRC you can stake on average only once a month, so not staking for 3 months and then to have 3 stakes within a week if would happen would be completely normal. It's not comfortable to have small balance, I know this well!

Removing coin ageing (maturing) would not improve small holders chances at all. We have ~960 blocks to stake each day, so this ultimately limits frequency of staking.

But a Wallet with 100K is usually staking once a day aprox. And we have owners with several wallets wiht this amount, staking in several UTOX once a day. This decreases a lot the number of "free" blocks for "poor" wallets like me. In the end, we have a very reduced number of wallets staking daily (see block explorer). If the ppor wallets will never stake, we will end leaving the network and increasing the "power" of the few rich.
And I have staked never, months and moths...

Exactly how many months you didn't stake? If you have a lot of tiny UTXOs (coins from faucets for examples) you may try to combine all into one or two. There are threads on reddit. Also I assume you have newest version of the client and unlocked for staking. As I said, with ~6k coins 3 months without a stake can be nothing extraordinary. This probabilistic nature...

I'm afraid nobody found the way to make it better for the poor. Instead of 100k with many UTXOs person could have 20 separate addresses with 5k each. And still he would get same share of staked blocks. Nothing changes. The only way for small holders is pool.

Had to say, by somekind of miracle...I just staked for first time :D

Maybe change S to #Stakes, or something like this in the table. Took me quite some time

Thanks, should be more readable now.

Many thanks for this! Appreciate it.

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