Epidemic skeptics.

in #coronavirus4 years ago

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What is most curiously interesting to me is the seemingly emotional compulsion among a large part of the population to be impervious to the data and immune to concern over anything but the economic catastrophe.


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People say "Well, Italy is so much smaller and less populated than us, so you cannot compare us to them." We are nearly six times more populated than Italy. So if it kills the same percentage of people here as it did there, it follows that six times as many Americans will die in the first three weeks.

But we are, of course, not like Italy, but many parts of our population are even more vulnerable than Italy's aged population. It is precisely that so many people live in rural areas that will likely have little exposure or are in areas that are warm enough to ward off the spread that half of our population can be discounted.

Our big cities are the likely hotspots. As we are beginning to see in New York, which now has discovered 40% of America's cases in a rush of just a few days, it doesn't take much to set off a massive contagion and overload a health system.

Again, I am less concerned about the number of people who contract the virus than the number of people who get really sick and/or die from it, but, undoubtedly, as the number of people who get it rises, so does the number of people who are likely to die from it if they are exposed to it.

Our death count has been doubling every two days. How much longer must that continue before the 'virus deniers' realise they were wrong?


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For all the Virus Deniers who are desperately trying to hang on to the belief that the Wuhan Virus has only a 1% death rate:

I realise that in order to continue to insist the death rate is only 1%, you are using the calculation which assumes everyone who currently has it will not die from it, but my point is that rate is worthless because you cannot know how many people who are diagnosed with it currently will survive. The only predictor of future results are past or resolved cases.

I am no epidemiologist and don't suspect you are either, but I know they fiercely argue amongst themselves over which is the better way to calculate in an ongoing epidemic. The way I see it, the only numbers worth examining and using as a predictive are the number of closed cases; just as we would gain an accurate fatality rate only after the epidemic had ended and everyone who had it either died from it or recovered. Hindsight is 20/20. Right now we have no real way of predicting how many that have it will die from it, or whether many more vulnerable people will get it and drive up that number.

Also, all bets are off once we reach capacity in our hospitals, like has happened in Italy.

Furthermore, the only way you can trust that 1% rate is if you believe China and Iran are reporting accurately and not trying to hide the extent of the catastrophe, you know, like they were for the first two months of this thing.

I am sorry you feel the need to get nasty, and I can appreciate the emotional drive that makes people want to believe comforting numbers, but let me try again and ask you: what do you think it means that so far in America 419 have died from it but only 178 have recovered from it?

What do you think it means that so far in Italy 5,476 have died from it but only 7,024 have recovered? Do you think that means it's only killing 1% of the Italians who get it? 5,476 fatalities is 9.25% of the 59,138 who have been confirmed with it. Do you think, somehow, that nobody who is still alive with it will end up dying from it, and/or many more Italians will contract it but the rate of their deaths will be so low that the current 9.25% fatality rate will ultimately plummet to 1%?

Come now.

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I think some countries cant show an accurate number due to overpopulation, lack of facilities and being more in poverty-stricken areas. Being from South Africa and having an increase each day our government has implemented a nationwide lockdown tomorrow. I mean just from having one case has raised to 709 cases today, meaning within 24 days it has rapidly increased. And even though we are going to have a lockdown and screening, people are still going to go out for grocery shopping. And that's beside the fact of smaller towns being screened which is unlikely because they focusing on certain areas, So I don't think that this virus can be stopped or even recorded accurately.

I believe some of these countries might even be hiding their numbers and if you ask me there might be deeper purpose for this. Truth is, you're right there's no parameter to judge who will live or die from the virus because it isn't like ebola that's a quick killer, however I do believe people say and assume things because they're scared and they'll continue to talk and talk. It's a time of pandemic I believe lots of propaganda will fly

China is cooking the books for sure. I won't speculate on the extent but they can be ignorant all they want. After-all, they will be the ones ultimately paying the price regardless of what numbers they put up.

I'm really amazed by those that say CoViD-19 has a 1% morality rate. I mean, where do they get their data from? I think that the acknowledgment of the fact is the first step towards winning this war. I just hope people will become more knowledgeable about this.
You did a nice exposition here.

Resteemed for added visibility to my followers

Well, even more "amazing" are those that hear that figure and deny the significance of it.

Hi there

I've been reading through many comments related to new hive chain and I've seen your comment too. Many users are being torn, however majority seem to be moving to new hive.

Are you fully moving there or will you stay on both chains? Just curious. I'm trying to figure out what to do myself.

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