Why I Bought 31.5% of the Alpha Gold Foil Lightning Dragon supply
This is an update to my previous article on why I bought 26% of the alpha gold foil lightning supply. Read that here:
Purchasing another GF LD from @steemmonsters allows me another opportunity to include a few more reasons as to my SPECULATIVE investment thesis I missed in part one.
So far in the first article I detailed the following points behind my thesis:
ASSET CLASSIFICATION
SCARCITY
INSIDER OWNERSHIP
MANAGMENT
SUPPLY\CORNERNING THE MARKET
ROADMAP
So why did I increase my stake from a couple weeks ago?
I am adding:
COST BASIS:
My cost basis for the dragons is relatively low due to the fact that I caught one of them in the wild (with the help of my Lucky Mene Box)
As an aside, my overall costs from my Gold Foil Legendary collection is reduced because I also found 2 Selenia Skies in the wild, and I did this epic trade with @reseller earlier this year:
I used 24 karat gold charms that I got from referral credit I earned right here on Steemit to trade him for a GF Frost Giant. This was a ton of fun and i would consider future trades like this !
I earned the credit I used to buy the charms to trade @reseller using an invite link from Mene with the following sentence on every blog, which I am showing you in case you want to use my link to get YOUR own link:
Earn $5 in Mene credit for signing up for Mene with this invite link:
The next reason is the:
DRAGON BUY BACK PROGRAM:
This isn’t actually a real program but there is a potential for people to combine their dragons to use for gold tournaments which would work kind of like a stock buy back program.
In a stock buy back, a company purchases it’s own shares (hopefully with free cash flow and not debt) and then cancels them. This reduces the float (or tradable shares) and make your piece of the pie larger.
If @steemmonsters players begin to combine their gold foil lightning dragons it would reduce the number of existing ones from the current 19 number (the rarest card in the game).
While this is absolutely no kind of guarentee its a nice potential kicker and tertiary reason to add to my thesis.
CORNERING THE MARKET PART II
Lets take a look at how this has worked out so far from 2 weeks ago:
Notice that there is only 1 Lightning Dragon available at $5000 and that it is the only Alpha Gold Foil Legendary that has 1 card for sale.
This could certainly change at any moment if someone decides to sell one of the 13 dragons I have not bought yet. But for the moment, it would be nearly impossible for someone to get ahold of this card. They would have to buy this one for $5000 or come to me with some sort of offer.
This is why cornering the market is so powerful.
OPPORTUNITY:
This might be the only chance I get to corner a market in this fashion. As I’ve already detailed in part one, I am prepared for this speculative investment to go to zero, though I don’t think it will.
How often is there a chance to corner ANY market for an individual, especially one with signficant potential in an early growth stage.
GOLD TOURNAMENTS:
While we don’t know many details of what these might look like, we can assume there will be some of these as mentioned by @aggroed just today. Even if I don’t enter these myself, there might be an opportunity to rent out some of my dragons to players and recoup some of my cost basis while I wait for the game to grow.
For the right situation I would even consider sponsoring a tournament with a prize from MENE. (Right situation = right person hosting , right promotion, little to zero work from me)
Mene sells 24 karat gold and platinum investment jewelry and gifts by gram weight x current metals price with a transparent design fee....
Like these 24 karat gold and platinum buttons!
If someone can make it super easy for me to sponsor a tournament, I will consider doing this!
CONCLUSION:
The gold foils have taken a beating with respect to price recently, and much of this is directly related to the sentiment in crypto.
This is great for buyers!
I have no idea what the future holds with regards to these cards and in the Wild West of crypto anything can happen which is why I have already accepted a worse case scenario potential catastrophic loss if the cards go to zero.
How can I take such an insane risk?
Am I a reckless gambler, swashbuckling my way through the internet wildly throwing money at everything I see?
Quite the opposite. I’m pretty quiet and mostly stay home and order door dash.
BUT
I do one thing that most people don’t.
I anchor my entire investment portfolio with the most stable and proven form of money in recorded history. By owning real physical gold and having the security of the only real form of money, I can comfortable take fliers on virtual cards built on the blockchain.
So owning this:
Lets me speculate with this:
So while nothing in this article should be constituted as investment advice... now you know
Why I Bought 31.5% of the Alpha Gold Foil Lightning Dragon Supply!
Investor Presentation:https://mene.com/investors/docs/Investor_Presentation.pdf
Earn $5 in Mene credit for signing up for Mene with this invite link:
To sign up for a Goldmoney Holding start here: https://www.goldmoney.com/w/goldmatters
Sign up for steemmonsters: https://steemmonsters.com/?ref=goldmatters
Jewelry Worth It’s Weight in Gold:
Menē crafts 24 karat gold and platinum investment jewelry™ that is transparently sold by gram weight. By combining innovative technology with timeless design, Menē restores the ancient tradition of jewelry as a store of enduring value.
I am on a personal mission to spread the word about Goldmoney and Menē through any means necessary. Goldmoney\Mene allows individuals to empower themselves by protecting their savings by owning small or large amounts gold previously inaccessible to regular people like you and me.
The above references an opinion and is for information purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice. Seek a duly licensed professional for investment advice.
See Steemians unbox Mene:
I have the first post already enjoyed and this one made me think about this approach even more. Your strategy is pretty interesting but doesn't put the value of the card for the game into play.
The Lightning Dragon is a very specific card that is great but also expensive to play (7 Mana) and reduced to only the Dragon splinter. Cards like neutral monsters (work with all splinters) and summoners (needed to play the cards in the first place, are much more relevant for a player. On top of that, it is an Alpha card, meaning there is its Beta equivalent (currently total supply of 29), with the same game play relevance (except for potential Alpha-only goldfoil cards tournaments). That makes the total supply already ~50. Hence, cornering the Beta supply as well might be a good move for you (cheapest Lightning Dragon currently $120).
Cards, which are either neutral or summoners are generally much more versatile for the game. If you have a look at the Epic gold foils from them (all Beta cards, so no Alpha supply as alternative), you can see that the supply for all of them is currently at ~100 cards each. After opening all remaining Beta boosters, this number might increase to around ~200-250. And one needs ten of them to max level, allowing for a maximum of 20-25 top level cards. Compared to the Lightning Dragon, which needs only 3 cards to max level, we get about 7 Alpha max and ~23 Beta max cards (assuming the supply increases from 29 to about 69). That's less maxed epic gold foils available for all.
Thats a very interesting point @flauwy! I appreciate your perspective ... you are completely correct, my thesis doesnt really include specific game play mechanics or card utility but rather is focused exclusively on rarity.
I understand what you mean about the Betas being equivalent in game play and agree, however, if you look at it from the point of view of rarity the edition is what I am focused on.
An extreme example of this would be the Magic the Gathering cards. It is not just the strategic advantage of the Black Lotus that gives it its extreme value but its scarcity in the Alpha version. I wrote another blog with a casual mention of the black lotus here: https://steemit.com/mene/@goldmatters/the-gold-lotus-the-next-black-lotus?sort=trending
Massive caveat that this card is super old and I don’t necessarily expect that type of performance from my LDs, but i don’t think it is impossible to achieve at least a smaller percentage of that performance over time if the game is a huge hit.
What I am trying to say is, this is a very specific edition and if the game takes off, the most rare edition is going to be the most valuable regardless of its strategic advantage in the game, and I don’t think the betas will be as valuable because they are not the first version and they are not as rare.
I really appreciate your perspective @flauwy, thanks for weighing in!
Very interesting discussion!
Thank you for reading !
Oh, and I should have added: good luck with your investment! :)
Very sound arguments! One thing bugging me is valuation of (regular rare) summoners. Yes, you need them, but their supply is huge and if combining cards will progress they will loose value in comparison to some other cards. Or I miss something in my analysis.
#goldmattersbelike
Thats totally me !
You are truly the gold guy on steem 🤣
Posted using Partiko iOS
Thanks man! I’ll wear that title proudly :)
My best card!
![]
(
)
You must have got that with your Lucky Mene Box!!
Good analysis. Gold has unique physical properties, what bitcoin or any other token lacks.
$5000 for a card is very speculative. In general gold foil card prices are speculative due to little or no trade. Bidding part of the market can change it, but also new players acquisition is necessary.
I've just done some Beta series cards value calculations and in average after spending $200 on booster packs you get cards worth on the market ~$170.
Also, it seems selling levelled up cards is more difficult and they are at lower prices than single level 1 cards (per BCX). Thus picking up from the market might be a better option.
Very interesting! Thanks for reading !
Oh my gosh, I kinda sorta remember talking about this stuff with you on discord! Maybe 3 different times lol I love asking you for investment advice
Ha ha! The good news it we will probably both forget I even wrote this and then we can have this discussion again. Forgetting everything like goldfish!
Don't ever combine those dragons! But level them up once you are able!
I agree!
@goldmatters Have I ever Told you That I Like Your Thinking ?......."7" Coming Out..............A "WINNER"
Thanks man! Those dice are pretty sweet! They could use some 24k gold and platinum friends!!
I totally like your thinking, and it definitely sounds like you've got your head screwed on straight.... but... are you worried about @steemmonsters adding new gold cards that might dilute your investment? Or adding a new layer above gold?
Also, the price of gold and silver has launched so hard since the stockmarket took a tumble. I like to think of you sitting there laughing the laugh of a confident investor...
Great question! Yes I did mention that this was a possiblity in part one of overall dilution. It’s certainly possible that more card creation can dilute the total existing supply...BUT.... If i didn’t think the game had a good chance of being successful there would be no reason to take a position in the first place, and if the game is successful, in theory the amount of new players would create a demand for all available cards including the gold ones. Its hard to imagine now when there are only a couple thousand players, but if the game is a big hit and draws in tens or hundreds of thousands... thats where the asymmetric upside potential exists :) great question!!
I totes think it has epic chances of being successful. <<useless comment. This is one of those comments that when you read it, you think, "Wow, why did that person even bother to comment? that added nothing to the conversation."
I'm officially THAT person.
Thats not true! Its the opposite! Every time I DON”T see a comment from you im like... “wheres her comment??”
Great answer! The good thing about SteemMonsters is that the more that gets built on the blockchain, the more each dapp helps the other dapps... Well, considering SteemMonsters has way more playability than CryptoKitties, I hope that one day you too can sell a dragon for $170k.
Thanks Mr. Ninja! If that happens, we will have Mene make you a 24k gold throwing star
Hahaha, assassinatin' in style!
I never understand how @steemmonsters works, even so I congratulate you for what you achieve!
Thank you! There are a lot of tutorials avalible if you are interested in learning more :)