My 2018/2019 betting plan!
Well my betting season 2018/2019 starts this season! And just like every year I am planning to make a profit! Read planning, because there are more years with a loss than a profit!
But I am a moderate sports bettor, for me it is a hobby! While it is a hobby and I do play for peanuts, I do take it serious!
But this year I really think that I can pull it off! In the past months I have gained lots more of sports betting knowledge thanks to our Steem Sportsbetting Community (@sbcbot)!
I now do have a blog which people actually read! Which will ensure that lot’s more of investigation will be done before placing my bets!
Instead of focusing too much on too many competition I will be focusing mainly on 2! These will be the Belgian Jupiler Pro League and the English Premier League!
Also bets will be placed on the Champions League and the European League!
Last year my betting plan was mainly based on accumulators! This year will be based on single bets! This does not mean that I won’t play acca’s anymore but not more than 1 per week!
I will also try to stay away from other sports but some big events, will maybe get my attention!
The stakes
As written above, I am a small stake sports bettor! I will be using 2 bookmakers at the start of the season!
1 is a € bookmaker (Unibet), while the other is a bitcoin bookmaker (Nitrogensports.eu).
I will be using the flat stake approach. This means that each bet will have the same stake! This is valid for single bets and acca bets!
In the beginning of the season I will be starting with the following stakes:
- Unibet: €1 per bet
- Nitrogensports.er: BTC 0.000155 per bet (That’s around €1.01 per bet with current BTC price)
There are 2 exceptions on this:
- Supertoto: max €3,2 per week
- Patent Correct Score bet: €0.75 on the singles, €0.25 on the doubles and €0.2 on the treble, making €3.2 per bet!
At the start of each month I will check these stakes again! The idea is that each single and acca bet within a month has to be 1% of the bankroll at the bookmaker from the beginning of the month, but will not go below €1!
The singles
I will not play single bets with odds below 1.7! As we all know the lower the odds, the harder it is to make a profit!
Suppose that you are playing average odds of 2. Then a hit rate of 51% is enough to make a profit! When your average odds drop to 1.5, than your hit rate has to increase to 67% to make a profit!
And believe me this is harder than it looks!
Only bets are allowed on the competitions outlined below!
Not more than two bets are allowed on 1 game!
All my single bets will be posted well before the kick off of the games!
The Belgian Jupiler Pro League
The main competition of my home country! I should have the most knowledge about this compared to other European top competitions! Each round 8 games will be played!
So, I am allowed 8 bets per round! Nothing more, but less is allowed. It would be stupid to force myself to play the maximum number of bets!
The English Premier League
Maybe not the best competition on earth, but for sure the most watch competition. Because of all the Belgian players involved, I do have a huge interest in this competition.
But my knowledge about the Premier League is a lot less than my knowledge of the Belgian one!
Here there are 10 games per round! To protect myself, I will only allow myself to place 5 bets per round!
Champions league
Well it will be hard to stay away from this! So I can better include this in the list! Mat 5 bets per round!
European League
The same as for the Champions League! Hopefully lots of Belgian team involved here! Still I will restrict myself to 5 bets per round!
The accumulator
Each weekend I will allow myself to play 1 accumulator bet per week. Just like the singles it will be played flat stake!
Minimal 3 games on the ticket and max 5 games. Games may be selected from all football Competitions in Europe. But may not include bets, which are also played as a single!
Most of the time, the bets on these slip will be 1X2, BTTS or Over/Under 2.5 !
Correct Score Patent bet!
A patent bet consists of 3 bets on a ticket and money is placed on all possible combinations. Resulting in 3 single bets, 3 double bets and one treble!
I was doubting between a luck15 and a patent correct score bet! But let’s be honest it would even be surprise if I can manage to predict correct scores on a single ticket, let alone 4!
The games selected on this patent bet may came from all European Football competition and don’t have to be on the same day but in the same weekend!
Lars will be involved in this! Probably I will pick 10 games and let him write down his predictions! The games where we both will have written down the same outcome will be selected!
Unibet Supertoto
I will play one Supertoto 14 ticket per weekend! Most of the times these games will take place on Saturday!
A supertoto 14 is more like a pool game, more information can be found here.
The max wager per weekend is €3.2 euro!
Review
I will be posting the results on each on Sunday evening or Monday during the day! All bets will be used for the SBC tipping league!
Each month I will evaluate the progress on the Supertoto and the patent bet! These 2 could bleed my sports betting bankroll and because I do want to come out as a winner, it could be possible that I would have to ditch these!
This will be a hard decision but it has to be taken with the mind instead of the heart!
The bookies
Like written above I will make use of a BTC bookmaker and an Euro bookmaker.
These are my choises:
I really do believe that this season could be profitable!
Let's beat the bookies!
Cheers,
Peter
Sports Bettors On Steemit Unite and Join the SBC !
@steemitbloggers
You mean your betting season starts now?
When will the competitions start?
The Belgian Jupiler League will start on Friday!
The English Premier League will start at the 10th of August!
European League and Champions League are already started but for the moment, I will stay away from it mostly. Unless I do spot a bet which is worth the risk!
I was still thinking about organizing a similar contest as your world cup. I guess that should either be for the premier league or for the champions league.
Do you have any ideas on hosting it again? And how do you look back on it?
Well to be honest, I am proud that I did it and that I did pull it off, but also glad that it is over! For sure the start was nerve wracking and a administration nightmare!
But I did it to put my own account and the @sbcbot account in the picture. The second worked, not sure about the first objective!
If I add all the pay-outs of the world cup posts, that would accumulate around $100. Like you know 25% was for the curators! So all the work was not worth the money! Most of the upvotes would have come my way anyway. 2 great upvotes make the difference!
I also regret that I was naive enough no to request an upvote on the posts! Think about the following. The winner of the contest didn't even upvote the pay-out post! How is that sound? He was awarded 22 SBD and didn't even took the time to upvote the post!
People do underestimate how much work is involved!
I also regret that I didn't require the winners of the contest to be active on the blockchain! For all I know I did have send some SBD to contest who aren't on Steem anymore!
So, not I am not planning a new contest (yet). So feel free to do, you will have my support!
You could use this format for the Champions league! Here you also have 4 pots, and after the round robin rounds, the direct elimination!
The problem here is that the contest would take more than 6 months. So, you need to have a mechanism build in to guarantee to you will be sending the prize money to players who are still active at the end of the competition.
Than you probably have to search for sponsors! While people are likely to participate with everything where the can win at least 0.001 SBD, you will have more participants with a decent prize pool!
I wouldn't do it for the English Premier League. There is lots of competition on this field and the setup I did use is just not suited for a regular competition!
If you want to do it, just do it! I can send you my excel sheet, we could alter it for the Champions League and maybe we can co-host it together. This way we would have a back-up!
The best thing that came out of it! That at least during the World Cup, I could fill one or 2 days per week with an easy post!
Cheers,
Peter
Why did it work out for @sbcbot?
If I do anything then champion league might be best.
I think it would be a good idea to oblige at least a few upvotes. Or guarantee that part of the post pay outs will be used for the prize money.
Perhaps a combination with @abh12345 engagement league could work somehow? For example by giving a higher prize for Steemonians that are in the league or in the top of the league?
Worth lots of competition for the premier league, you mean there are already more contests? Like the fifa fantasy league?
There will be a lot of contests around the Premier League. Already know 2 or 3 which will continue where they left of last year!
I would not combine it with Ashers league. And for sure not with the top of the league. You gave it a shot last week and put a lot of time in it, and you were lucky for not doing self votes.
You still have a month time for the Champions League. The premier league on the other hand starts within 2 weeks.
How can I find the good premier league contests?
I mean the ones where I can easily participate and have a very small chance to win a very, very, very big prize 😬
That would probably the one from @acidyo!
He payed out over 1K last season!!!
Hi. %10 upvoted. if you send 0.05 sbd %100 vote and resteem (2749 Followers) Manuel upvote.
No thanks, just send me 1 SBD. Thanks buddy.
Solid plan Peter !
Good luck this season
Thanks @costanza!
Hope that we both, and the complete SBC community, can prosper and beat the bookies!
You really change my betting mindset in the past months! So, thank you for that!
Still doubting about the Supertoto and the patent bet, because they really could drain the possible profit!