Bitcoin neural network analysis week 42/2018: Short Term Reversal
Analysis of past week:
The network did forecast a stable and boring week, but we had a flash crash that was not forecast. The network strategy of hodling was suboptimal.
I am comparing three strategies, first hold fiat and make a small profit elsewhere, hold bitcoin, or follow the network predictions. Since I started documenting my predictions on the blockchain these strategies compare as
Fiat with a weekly profit of 0.5%: 13498.40$ (up 0.5 %)
Holding BTC: 6290.93$ (down 4.7%)
Network strategy: 6738.48$ (down 4.7%)
Starting capital: 11497.40$
The fiat strategy is up since most of the documented time has been a bear market, but the neural network has gained an advantage over btc.
Forecast:
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Red areas are predicted below the current price, blue/yellow areas indicate the expected passive growth, green areas are better than the expected growth. The vertical line is one week into the future and its size provides the prediction variance. The network prediction is smooth as the random noise is filtered out.
The network does not think that last weeks flash crash is solid and expects a quick recovery. After that is completed the network is back to predicting a boring future without many movements even though a slight and slow uptrend is visible.
The network clearly prefers btc or fiat for the coming week. My strategy will be holding btc.
This post is not financial advice! I am testing the potential to use neural networks for price predictions and am documenting my results on the blockchain to have provable public results. All prices are based on 0:00 UTC for consistency!
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