Bitcoin neural network analysis week 41/2018: Bitcoin now a stable currency??
Analysis of past week:
The network has predicted a solid week, but the markets remained very passive. Over the last weeks bitcoin has been trapped in a very narrow trading range and essentially nothing happened. In fact bitcoin has never been more stable in the last few years than now!
Will the network remain trapped or will we see a breakout soon? And will this bring some upwards or more downwards momentum? Currently almost anything seems possible.
I am comparing three strategies, first hold fiat and make a small profit elsewhere, hold bitcoin, or follow the network predictions. Since I started documenting my predictions on the blockchain these strategies compare as
Fiat with a weekly profit of 0.5%: 13431.24$ (up 0.5 %)
Holding BTC: 6602.95$ (down 0.3%)
Network strategy: 7072.70$ (down 0.3%)
Starting capital: 11497.40$
The fiat strategy is up since most of the documented time has been a bear market, but the neural network has gained an advantage over btc.
Forecast:
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Red areas are predicted below the current price, blue/yellow areas indicate the expected passive growth, green areas are better than the expected growth. The vertical line is one week into the future and its size provides the prediction variance. The network prediction is smooth as the random noise is filtered out.
The neural network sees no real indicators for an upward nor a downward breakout. It expects bitcoin to remain trapped in the trading range but with a slow upwards momentum. But it is important to stay alert. A breakout may happen at any time, the passive prediction simply means that the network does not favour an upwards break over a downwards one.
The network is rather indifferent between btc or fiat, but slightly prefers bitcoin. My strategy will be holding btc.
This post is not financial advice! I am testing the potential to use neural networks for price predictions and am documenting my results on the blockchain to have provable public results. All prices are based on 0:00 UTC for consistency!
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