Bitcoin neural network analysis week 31/2019: Still pessimistic ...
Analysis of past week:
Last week was a continuous up and the network failed to predict that. The strategy was bad.
I am comparing three strategies, first hold fiat and make a small profit elsewhere, hold bitcoin, or follow the network predictions. Since I started documenting my predictions on the blockchain these strategies compare as
Fiat with a weekly profit of 0.5%: 16643.95$ (up 0.5 %)
Holding BTC: 10986.51$ (up 15.3 %)
Network strategy: 11217.62$ (up 0.5 %)
Starting capital: 11497.40$
The neural network has gotten a small edge above holding bitcoin. Fiat with 30% annual interest is still preferred.
Forecast:
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Red areas are predicted below the current price, blue/yellow areas indicate the expected passive growth, green areas are better than the expected growth. The vertical line is one week into the future and its size provides the prediction variance. The network prediction is smooth as the random noise is filtered out.
The network does not expect more gains and is rather stable.
The network slightly prefers fiat over bitcoin for the next week, so the strategy will remain sitting on fiat for now.
This post is not financial advice! I am testing the potential to use neural networks for price predictions and am documenting my results on the blockchain to have provable public results. All prices are based on 0:00 UTC for consistency!
Yoo! Have you already heard of BitGrin?
What do you think of it?
There is nothing wrong with the idea. However I do not think it will get too much traction.
First there is no difference in emission for the first 4 years. So for a long time there is nothing that sets it apart. Then I am not convinced how many active developers will support it. If they just copy commits they will always lag behind. Finally, Grin is already experimental. I do not see a fork at this point get many people using it.
Instead I think that IF GRIN is a success that we may have a bitcoin-like fork in 2-3 years from now when the first having would be due.
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