Beware Shitcoins
Here on Steem there are essentially no bitcoin maximalists and everything is filled by altcoin fanatics. Being on an altcoin powered platform this certainly is no surprise.
I personally am a much bigger supporter of BTC than for example steem but would not call myself a maximalist. I think that a healthy competition will only advance crypto further. That being said, I think it is due to issue a word of warning. Most of the altcoins are nothing but scams, unless or redundant, even in the top 20.
Outright scams
We have seen how these work. They essentially promise free money and are build as a ponzi scheme. These collapse as soon as the bull market ends because the only thing supporting them is hype. The best example is bitconnect, but new scams are waiting to steal your money in the next bull run.
Fake tokens
There are lots of alright projects that have added a token just for the purpose of drawing money in an ICO and collecting user fees. But these tokens could be removed and implementations without an extra token are possible. It is just a matter of time until somebody implements the same functionality clean and thereby making the service cheaper to the users that no longer need to pay some random token holder to participate.
These tokens may survive for some time because there is limited incentive to implement the code without directly monetising it, but it will eventually happen. So my advice is asking yourself why a certain token is necessary, or if the project could be improved by entirely removing the token, or replacing the token with ethereum (or whatever is the native smart contract token) or bitcoin.
For example I think that REP is a necessary token required for the game theoretical security of the prediction markets on augur. But MAKER seems to be an 'add on' token just for 'governance' and collecting fees. Or look at BAT. Why do I need to donate an invented token to content creators when I could just pay them BTC.
Steem is another necessary token as we need inflation to make the platform essentially free to use and pay content creators. I still think that the financial model is very speculative and better solutions may appear any monet.
Overhyped Technology
A lot of the altcoins are massively overstating their technology or use case. They could work, but it is very unclear if there is a market at all or if they can deliver their promises in a real world environment. Most of these are in fact impossible and need a lot of technological advancement. We will not see them successful within the next 10 years and then there will be newer cleaner implementations.
Redundant coins
A lot of the coins are just clones of other projects that just change some minor details. How are these adding any real value to crypto? Most of these will eventually be forgotten and disappear. See for example Bitcoin gold.
Utility Tokens
Utility tokens are a solid idea and I think they have a good future on the blockchain. For example your local supermarket can give you promotion tokens on the chain; or car sharing pools may have their own utility token for renting cars. This opens up trading on a secondary market and that may be beneficial for the project. But these tokens should have an almost constant price and be a very non-speculative investment. They are fundamentally different from fundamental crypto coins such as bitcoin. There is no reason to believe they would increase in value even when the underlying project becomes successful.
Smart Contract Platforms
Bitcoin has already achieved real world adoption and despite the bear market is showing very healthy vital signs. The same is not true for smart contract platforms. All of those still have a fundamental scaling/security tradeoff problem. There are many approaches but basic functionality is just not there yet. While I believe in the revolutionary potential of smart contracts I think that the chain and technology that will enable mass adoption does not exist yet. Investing in these coins is very speculative.
Summary
In the top 20 I think there are only very few projects that have a realistic chance of breakthrough adoption. Everything but BTC is very speculative. It might pay off massively, but there is a solid chance to have total loss.
Hey, hello from another BTC maximalist
I just fount your post about Hierarchical Key Sharing
Can you have any usefull ref links, to read more about it?
no, I invented it. It is just a tiny modification of the usual Shamir secret sharing. Since the modification is so small there is a chance that there is some literature. Plus ordinary secret sharing can do the same by giving more keys to more important participants, even though that is somewhat less elegant.
From a speculation standpoint, BTC is a lower risk, lower reward crypto. The moon boys are looking for life changing money, not just more money. Altcoins has that kind of potential. Bitcoin did but that ship has sailed years ago.
From a utility standpoint, Bitcoin has far less potential than smart contract platforms which can be extended far beyond just monetary transactions.
I think altcoins are where Bitcoin used to be 5 years ago. Most people only know about Bitcoin, they have little to no clue about the existence of altcoins.
Smart contract platforms could do money, but the game theoretical mechanisms make that unlikely. For money we likely want a super high security chain with low inflation. For smart contracts we probably want more inflation and a broad spectrum in security from low security games to medium scale financial transactions. In summary I do not think smart contracts actually compete with BTC. There likely will be space for both.
I really disagree that altcoins are 5 years ahead of BTC. Most of the developments there are either super speculative, just bullshit to draw in money or impractical in real world scenarios. BTC has a lot of ongoing development, such and dandelion and Schnorr signatures recently. Also most of the lightning development focuses on BTC.
I think that BTC is lower risk, but still has a significant upwards potential. Some few altcoins have strong potential, but does the increased risk justify that?
You misunderstand me. I am saying that alts are 5 years behind Bitcoin. Due to the lack of exposure and developments, the potential from an investment perspective is much higher, just like Bitcoin's potential 5 years ago. Furthermore, how much higher can Bitcoin even go? Even during the bull run while Bitcoin was increasing by about 10X, the altcoins were going up 50X to 100X (insane).
You are right that most of them are scams. But the increased risk is justified, considering the stage that we are in right now.
I would say as a first realistic goal btc could reach marketcap of gold. From current evaluation that is still a 100x move up.
Altcoins can rise much more, but risk is much greater. I think it comes down to personal choice. I feel better with a majority BTC exposure plus some few selected alts.
Which are your favorite projects?
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Hi,
In the top 20 I would rate:
....
Thanks for the answer! :)
So you am I getting this right, you dont like XRP, TRX, Iota, Maker DAO?
I guess I know why XRP and Iota, but why TRX and Maker DAO?
What do you think of eos? Or Nano?
Posted using Partiko Android
TRX seems to be overhyped. I think what they do best is advertisement. That may of course lead to a nice short term price gain but in the long run eos, cardano or Eth seem much stronger.
Maker is an unnecessary token. Stablecoins can be build without inventing a governance token. In the short term this seems fine. In the long term maker will be replaced by a cheaper alternative.
Nano seems rather boring. For dag-coins byteball seems much more fun.
Eos is okay. It follows an approach I don't like but I think there is a market for this. The big question is how will it handle the load in the next bull run. Will it 'fail' like BTC did 2017? But I am rather positive that it will be a part of that bull cycle.
Posted using Partiko Android
I think BTC has a place, but at over 50% of the total crypto market cap, it is BTC that is currently overvalued, at least in comparison to other top coins. I think currently ETH, ZEC, QTUM and potentially STEEM are prime coins that are very much undervalued compared to BTC, but most of all, a healthy crypto market simply needs BTC to drop a few points below the 50% marker IMHO. It's like Linux/Mac vs MS a number of years ago. When there stopped being one dominant >50% platform was when real innovation started happening and happening on all platforms.
For me personally, I'm out of BTC for now. Once (if) it drops to say 46% or 47% of total crypto market cap I might move some funds back to BTC, but as long as it is at more than half the market, I simply don't want to contribute to keeping the unhealthy level up there.
I do not agree with your analysis. BTC is truly revolutionary. Taking sovereignty over money into the hand of the global community is a huge deal from the current system. And among the coins that want to be money BTC is imho the most likely to succeed.
Smart contracts are also revolutionary. But their true uses will probably only be found in 10 or 20 years and only then they will also be ready from a tech point of view.
Steem is great, but I think it is not revolutionary in the same way BTC or ETH are.
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FYI, got my one and only flag (so far) from a btc maximalist on a comment in a Roger Ver post.
The good thing is that the true maximalsist have no steem power so being flagged by them kind of doesnt matter :)
Yeah it was kind of cool as Roger upvoted me to bring me back to visability himself. That was when he was srill visiting steem regularily. Now someone from bitcoin.com uses his posting key to repost his videos it seems. It"s pretty cool they still acknowledge us though, in my opinion.
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