The forecast for BTC/USD

Bitcoin has come a long way since my last forecast. Updated historical highs and it seems that bitcoin is not going to stop. At the moment, bitcoin is trading in the range of 1600-1800. While talking about what a reduction is not necessary. 100-200 dollars for bitcoin is already a small correction.

About a month has passed since my last forecast. And during this time bitcoin has risen in price by almost half. I then talked about 1400-1500 before the end of the year, but after 2 weeks we got through these levels and not really even slowed down. Yes, there was a small pullback, but the market has not noticed it.

Now there is a similar situation. the market is a bit stalled and went flat. And like even can't pass the level 1800. But as shown by the level of 1500 — it all can be. Not to say that there were some strong fundamental data on the little things, but a lot.

I think the current growth is due to three factors, but they all share one thing — a growth in the expectation, as none of this has happened yet, but the market has already laid it in future price. The first is the revision of the SEC's questions about the bitcoin Foundation, the question is only revise, no decision on it, but many hope that the decision will be positive, and then according to them the price will go even higher, which in principle is justified. The second is SegWit. Successful introduction of technology Seguit LTK promises to spill over into pitocin. A lot of waiting and I am sure that with the solution of the problems in the processing speed of transactions, bitcoin price will go up. And third, it's part of the fact has already happened, but nevertheless, I think it could not cause such a strong growth, this is the full legalization of bitcoin in Japan.

The next global event that will greatly influence the bitcoin is the lifting of the restrictions of the Chinese National Bank. But this time, it is likely to play against the bitcoin, though not for long. This event should give the long-awaited market correction of at least 20%.

And although the rest of the month remained practically nothing, there is a possibility, though highly unlikely, that candle closes where it opened. Well, at least that tells me technical analysis of trend otherwise need to be redrawn.

At one time in history it has been the place to be such a strong movement. But then there was a downturn of more than 60%. Then it was promoted by an exit of Asimov. Now this can happen only if Asik sharply go to at least 10 nm technology, and it is not yet in sight.

At the moment I'm not as actively sell and try to balance. Sell on a rise and a fall and the profit spending to close positions at the levels of 1,200-1,300. And replaced them with open smaller sales at current levels.

I think — I can try to take a level of $ 2,000 to the beginning of the month, but there comes the decision of NSC and when the restrictions will be removed, the price will go down, as it released a large mass of bitcoins, which will be a little drained.