Dangers of technical analysis on BTC/STEEM pair

in #steemit10 years ago

This is partially in response to @ozchatart's great post about TA, it's a good read and only 7 hours old so you can still give it a vote.

I've got 3 main concerns about technical analysis (TA) in this case

Changing Fundamentals

Steemit is still a start up and as such things are changing fast. A hack, price drops 30%. Increased daily account creation, price jumps 50%, and so on. News is moving the price, and at the stage Steemt is in, there is new news every day.

Bitcoin moves too

While bitcoin is fairly stable within the crypto world, I feel it is not stable enough for the use of TA. If I am looking at BTC/STEEM and see STEEM fall 5%, does that mean anything when it turns out btc raised 5% in value?

There is no STEEM/USD market yet but is there any software available to meld two graphs? i.e take BTC/USD and BTC/STEEM info and produce a STEEM/USD representation for TA.

Volume

Yesterday a single sale of 10,000 STEEM dropped the price over 10%. This can and will happen in a market with low volume, when one person who wants to sell 1% of their stake can drop the market by 10%, I feel TA's value is greatly diminished.

Conclusion

The reason I have invested in Steemit and, if the day comes, the reason I will divest from steemit is the fundamentals. In this case we have a smooth platform that is being embraced by an audience outside of cryptocurrency, that's enough to get me excited.

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