Bad year, then three good years

I would like to start with a chart that shows how the rail indicator behaves for the standard ten PUR index. And it turns out that the jump that took place in recent days in recent weeks was very heavily used by investors who decided to hedge against the possibility of recurrence of the downdward trend.

And this put call rate is pouring in very heavily, it has increased due to the demand for independently.PUT options for further declines were traded,
which allow you to earn on declines,or to protect against declines.Let us also note that over the last four years,each time when this index peaked so strongly, we were very close to reaching the minimum on the standard poor index.
Therefore, optimism for the New Year can also flow from this indicator,which can be interpreted as an aria, and they jumped opposite to the one which the signal is generated by the indicator.
Once again, I remind you of the PUT indicator,which shows the gigantic advantage of buying PUT options for decreases over CALL options for increases for the standard pressure index.

In the next chart. I would like to show how clearly the correlation to negative values between the behavior of the US bond yield and the behavior of the EN PUR standard index is growing now.

And here, the correlation is now at very clear negative levels, which means that if US bond yields are rising, there is a strong downward pressure on stock indices. And that's the behavior we're seeing right now, because it's very easy to explain. If the market interest rate increases, then in Marcel's profit pricing models, valuation models of listed companies, the valuation decreases and there is pressure to sell shares.
Conversely, if this market interest rate falls,there is pressure in income models, valuations of listed companies to raise the valuation of listed companies.
This is why stock market indices increase and the correlation, which decreases significantly from month to month, clearly shows that this year was a very close year of correlation between the stock market and the bond market.

Another very interesting graph showing the statistics for january.

January according to this statistic over the last 30 years has been a month where there was a mix of signals. Statistically, stock indices are growing by 0.6%, which is very little. however, we can see that periods when the stock market index goes down alternate with periods when the stock market index goes up. And over the last few years, we see that the series of years when January was declining amounted to a maximum of 3. Now i turns out that looking through the prism of the last three years, we were dealing with shipyards that were negative for the standard index. This resistance. Perhaps this is a harbinger of the fact that this year, which is just beginning, i.e. 2023, will bring us an increase in stock indices in january.

Let's also look at market interest rates

On the last trading day in 2022. Interest rate itself, reaches the level of 4.3-95% for june 2023, and at this level the peak of cycle of interest rate increaseas is to be reached. So over the next six months we will see two small increases by 25 basis points and the peak of the cycle of interest rate increases is already visible. In contrast, for the eurozone, we see a significant upward shift in this peak interest rate. Just a few days ago, the interest rate was close to 3.20, and now, as we can see, until june 2023, it is as much as 3.50, so it has increased significantly, very clearly, and expectations of a more aggressive hawkish approach of the central bank in Europe have increased to raise interest rates.Maybe this is one of the reasons that the euro dollar is so clearly growing and does not want to fall, and there is pressure on the euro at all, and the phenomenon we are observing now may continue in 2023.

The market may assume that these interest rates will align with the level that was observed for United States. Of course, this drive, the interest rate parity, will naturally push the eurodollar up and the euro's valuation relative to other currencies upwards. Therefore, this change should be extremely interesting and show that the eurozone actually wants to combat this inflation more aggressively and to make auro as a currency even more attractive, so that it can be used, for example, as a reserve currency on a larger scale than this place now.
This Phenomenon of a significant shift in the own interest rate is very intersting