EPL Relegation Fight - Week 29

Hi All,

The relegation fight is really starting to take shape now. I had a decision to make this week, as Watford and Brighton both passed Everton on the table. I either stop following Watford and Brighton and declare them out of the relegation fight, or start following Everton. In the end of the day it's probably a moot point, as the likelihood is that they're all safe - but I'ev decided to start following Everton on the off chance that they get drawn further into the scrap. Afterall, they've only won 2 games since Christmas.

So the big winners this week
Swansea +1.26
Brighton +1.21
Watford +1.07

Big Losers
West Ham -1.26
Crystal Palace -1.25

Onto the updated prediction:

I realised when I was looking at this that throughout the week that it was a bit confusing.

The predicted points columns are what I had predicted at the beginning of my analysis. For Everton, this is just points predicted from now until the end of the season.

The Differental column is how the teams have performed against the predictions I made (the sum of points from games played, minus points i predicted they would get from those games). For everton, this will of course be zero because they have not played any games that i had previously predicted.

The Predicted points column is just the Total predicted points + differential + Current points on the EPL table. This is what I'm predicting teams will finish on at the end of the season.

So looking at where teams are at, West Brom is slipping further away, it's hard to see them having any chance of survival - They need to exceed expectations by 10-11 points - which is more than 50% of their current points tally. I'm pretty much writing them off.

Crystal Palace look like they might be next to go. Whilst they're equal on points with Stoke, and only 1 behind Southampton, they have a tough draw - still to face Liverpool and Chelsea - though they can make up some ground against some of the other sides still in the relegation fight. But it's not looking good.

The remaining spot is still looking like Southampton or Stoke, but West Ham is starting to slip into the danger zone - Losing to Swansea 4-1 certainly didn't help.

Swansea looks to have given themselves a good chance of survival - they're in the next grouping with Newcastle and Huddersfield. Any of these teams should be safe if all goes as expected, but a bad loss to any of these teams will bring them back to earth. Huddersfield play Newcastle at the beginning of April, and Swansea next week, so these games will be big in the grand scheme of things for these clubs.

Watford, Brighton, Everton and Bournemouth are looking safe for now - but Everton, as I mentioned, are in terrible form, and the fact that they've even been included in this analysis as a new entry means that they could very well increase in danger as the weeks progress.

Matchday 30 sees a few 6 pointers that will again shape how this picture starts to look moving forward.

Everton vs Brighton - a winner here will pretty much all but be declared safe - a loser might start getting nervous.

Huddersfield vs Swansea - both of these clubs are hovering just above the danger zone - and a loss will put them right back in contention for relegation.

Newcastle vs Southampton - This game will give Southhampton to close the gap between these two clubs. Newcastle will of course need a win to avoid being drawn into the scrap.