DAX update 04.02.18
We saw a new alltime-high in the DAX, but it turned out to be only a fake breakout. Whenever this happens (no follow up buyers at an alltime-high), expect a sharp decline in price, because the buyers are angry now.
They sold their positions at a loss with the attitude of "fu#k this sh#t". They will likely not be buying again soon. They want to see it fall hard now, before they are considering to buy again.
Considering the big picture here, this is still a correction. It could be over soon, but you need to be aware that there is a big risk now. If the old alltime-high of 12380 does not offer strong support now, the destination for the DAX will be 10800 this year.
I have 4 bearish alternates in the DAX and only one bullish. If this bullish one dies below 12350, all hell will break loose and a new bear market will start.
So be aware of the risks involved, but watch out for strong bullmoves in the next 1-2 weeks. I am still bullish in the DAX.
The next strong supports to keep an eye on are 12500 and 12380.
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DISCLAIMER: This post / analysis serves general information purposes only. I am not, and never will be a financial adviser. The material in this post does not constitute any trading advice whatsoever. This is just the way I see the charts and what my trading ideas (from my personal experiences) are. I use chart pattern and Elliott Wave analysis for my trading ideas.
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I am expecting a bear market across most global equities this year. Interested to hear your thoughts on how long any bear market is likely to last?
Months or years. I don't like giving time predictions when not even wave 1 or A is done. Extension is always a possibility.
I understand. I am wondering if it’s likely to be a long bear market or over relatively quickly. I am expecting it to be months long and find the bottom before the start of a new bull market.
Bonds are selling off. This will cause the DAX to collapse too.