Post Payouts Since HF19
HF19 came into effect on the 20th of June.
This change was immediately noticeable on Steemit as post payouts all jumped significantly and votes suddenly started moving the dial, even from minnows.
Payouts in June
The following graph shows the daily payouts in June for posts, excluding payouts on comments.
The raw data taken for these graphs is from Steemdata.com by @furion.
There are a few interesting things about this graph but the size of the post payouts in recent days suggests that significantly more is being paid out each day than you would expect based on the daily Steem generated and the Steem price.
Daily Steem
According to steemd.com the current supply of Steem is around 250m, and at a 9.5% inflation rate this implies around 62k new Steem a day is produced. 75% of this goes to post rewards (Comments, Authors and Curators), i.e. around 46k Steem a day is the daily fund for post rewards.
Steem Price
Over the last month the price of Steem has ranged from 0.94 cents all the way up to 2.80. These prices and the 46k daily Steem would suggest that the daily payouts should be somewhere in the range of $43k to $128k over the last month. Until June 12th the above graph indicates that this was the case but there was a sudden surge in payouts since the 20th of June HF.
Rebalancing
I have noticed on my recent posts that whatever value is on them seems to reduce up until they are paid out. It looks to me like the system is in a period of rebalancing and we will continue to see pending payouts reduce over the next few days as the rewards pool continues to adjust.
Thank you for reading this. I write on Steemit about Blockchain, Cryptocurrency, Travel and lots of random topics.
Thanks for doing the math and analysis for me, I just recently did some big buy ups of STEEM so this is very useful to me. My strategy has been giving everyone I upvote for 100% of my vote power and to build up a following and also allocating my other crypto funds into more STEEM and SteemPower. Once things re-balance I can gauge the payout but still whatever happens I am part of this in the long term.
You can guage it but don't forget to factor in changes in price and increases in users. These are quite significant.
Does this mean that, at the end, the rewards will stay the same, as they were before the hardfork19?
The total rewards are the same after HF19, what has changed is how they are distributed.
very good post! upvoted
Thank you for sharing! I love this type of analysis. I'm going to do some of my own as well.
Thank you, I am going to look at payouts on comments next. This data is also available and it will be very interesting to see how this has changed since HF19.
Will check it out once you post it. I typically use SteemSQL to query the data, but it seems Steemdata already has all the info readily available. No need for the extra legwork eh?
nice post @eroche
i like it
I already have noticed this changes in my articles, but your data was very important to prove my reasoning.
Thanks for sharing!
Yes, the posts are constantly changing their price, always downward, I guess it's because of the reduced Steem pool, and the decrease in value.
Nice location but so far down in price
this year 9.5% inflation, next year less.
btw, the more balances, the better.