TV is dead. Long live TV.

in #musings10 years ago (edited)

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You’ve probably heard about cord cutters, and if you haven’t, well you’re probably not reading this post. For those of you who might have tripped over your corgi, stumbled onto your granddaughters laptop, and ended up at this article, “cord cutters” is the affectionate, sometimes derogatory, term for those individuals who have dropped cable and satellite television in lieu of streaming all of their video content directly from the web.

Hulu and Netflix kicked off the cord cutting trend, with Amazon Instant Video following soon after. Now, there are dozens of content streaming services, all with their own niche, all operating with varying degrees of success.

Cable and satellite services have been both fighting, and trying to buy into this trend. They seem, at best, confused about the future of television content, and where they fit. So, I’m going to lay it all out.

• Consumers want what they want, and they want it now. It’s not a new concept, just something overpaid execs tend to forget, which is strange, because remembering it is basically their job.

• Consumers don’t want to pay money for something they are used to getting for free. You can ask print journalist all about this one.

• Most consumers don’t shit gold. They’re already paying for internet, so when it comes down to paying for cable or a subscription to Netflix, decisions have to be made.

• Netflix is producing some pretty great exclusive content, and many other services are scrambling to catch up.

• HBO GO now exists.

Here it is. Television, you’re dead. You’re business model no longer works. Move on.

“Television” content isn’t going away, but in the near future, it’ll be delivered almost exclusive via the web.

The subscription model has a shelf life. Your average person won’t be able to afford a dozen different subscription services.

So, where does the future of tv lie. Well, it’s going to be all online. That’s a given. The big change will be the business model and how streaming services make their money. And, all the pieces are already there.

If you want to watch Netflix content, you have to subscribe to Netflix. Hulu is both subscription and ad based. Amazon Instant Video allows you to pay for individual episodes 24 hours after they air on television.

Not all consumers will be able to pay $9 for 20 different subscription services. Not all consumers can afford to pay for each individual episode. And, not all consumers are willing to sit through ads.

Eventually, the business model will change.

Imagine a streaming service that releases a new episodes of television series every week. One show might “air” on Thursday at 7, another on Friday at 8, and another on Saturday at 2. But, instead of having to be seated in front at the tv set right at 7 on Thursday, you have 24 hours where you can watch the show completely for free. There will be ads, you won’t be able to skip them, but for 24 hours it cost nothing to see your favorite show. After 24 hours, the ads go away. You can still watch the show, but now it cost $1.99. Oh, also, you now own that episode.

So, as a consumer you get to make a choice. Watch the show in the first 24 hours, sit through ads, but pay nothing. Or, wait 24 hours, pay $1.99 and see the show ad free.

Advertisers will know exactly how many people are seeing their ads. Time slots won’t matter, because people won’t have to chose between two shows starting at the same time. Then if you want to add on a subscription fee for “live” content, like sporting events, you can.

Now, I can’t see the future, and businesses are ruthless and greedy. Maybe the model I outlined just won’t work. Maybe it’s perfect, but no one will use it. What I know for sure is, things are changing, and more than a few companies who could adapt, won’t, and they’ll go out of business as a result.

The struggles between consumers and traditional television is over. The consumers won. Now, we get to watch what kind of greed monster grows from the ashes to once again wage war against consumers and their pocket books.

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