The main indicator for the crypto market is the 24hr total volume trend
From my analysis of the charts (not Bitcoin but all of crypto), the trigger of the bull run of 2017 seemed to be a dramatic increase in volume which impacted all of crypto. This volume level tracks the amount of money which came in. Currently the volume right now in Dec 2018 is at a similar level to the volume in November of 2017. Daily volume when the bull run was alive was actually only around double the current daily volume. It means the crypto space has around half of the volume it had but it doesn't mean we will not see that volume come back just as quick.
ICOs likely from what I can see in the volume played a big role in the bull run of 2017. The problem with the ICO market of 2017 is that there were a lot of unregistered securities. That being said it's only a matter of time before the ICO market recovers and another bull run appears. ICOs drive volume into the space and what happened to trigger the bear market?
From what I can see the 24 hour volume peaked at over 50 billion in Jan 2018 this year.
At the same time Facebook initiated it's ad ban at around this time; along came Bing, Google, Twitter, in coordinated fashion.
Most of these ad bans seem to be due to the ICO ads. It seems that ICOs were the main killer app for crypto and without ICOs we have nothing else.
I don't think the scam market of ICOs was sustainable. A bubble built on scams is bad for the long term growth of the market.
I do think ICOs are the first killer application which took crypto mainstream.
I do think ICOs will eventually be unbanned in Asia and in the US I do think eventually we will see regulated ICOs.
In fact I think the sooner developers focus on how to launch regulated ICOs the sooner we will see the next bull run.
The new ICO market will be biased against small investors unless regulators make some kind of exception so that small investors can waive the "sophisticated investor status" clause. I think this ability to let investors decide would solve the problem.
Eventually when the regulators allow, we will see ICO ads return. So I do not think that we will have a permanent bear market because I think for ICOs the crypto technology is simply the best there is for raising money. No other tech can do it as well.
At the same time developers now have to focus on compliance. This will also apply to Steem SMTs.
If Steem SMTs can be used for crowdfunding purposes then Steem will benefit in a bull market in my opinion.
Take nothing I say as investment advice. This is just my current analysis which has a high probability of being wrong more than right.
My recommendations for whomever is developing Steem SMTs
Put an emphasis on compliance features so that regulated securities SMTs can be launched. If necessary just ask the SEC for input on what these features might need to be or simply look at the global compliance trends in the securities markets. Steem is too transparent to expect anyone to take any big compliance risks in the current atmosphere.
Extremely well articulated post Dana. loved reading it. Regards, Nainaz
Great perspective indeed! Unfortunately, there are still some dark days ahead for the ICOs of 2017 and 2018 as the SEC continues to come down on them for their action as they also lose more funding lower due to the bear market. It will be interesting to see how the regulatory framework is setup once it is all done.
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