100 000$ per BTC in 2024?

Hello steemians,

                  How high Bitcoin price could surge?

Let's study numbers and some interesting data:

-For Bitcoin to reach Gold Market cap, BTC should be priced at 500 000$.
-If Gold holders divest 1% into Bitcoin , BTC price would be 5k$.
-BTC inflation is 4% per annum for the next 3 years and will decrease over time.
-USD suppy grow 15-20% annually
-To pass the world lowest reserve Currency (Canadian Loonie), BTC need to be priced at 3904$
-Bitcoin has been the best performing currency in 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2015, 2016.

                      Bitcoin vs world

Amazing perspective to see that one person , Bill Gates Fortune estimated by Forbes at 79.2 Billion$ is 73% higher than BTC marketcap.

Look at the rest of the vizualization to discover how much BTC is a drop in the ocean.

http://money.visualcapitalist.com/all-of-the-worlds-money-and-markets-in-one-visualization/

                How to estimate futur Bitcoin price?

The most popular tool is the Metcalfe's law : Valu of the network is proportional to the square of the number of connected users of the system.
Best way to measure the grow of users adoption is the number of transactions per day squared.
To be more precise we could try to use a mix of multiple data as numbers of wallets, numbers of users on exchanges, numbers of store accepting BTC... But let keep it simple.

Here is the 2011 to 2016 charts of BTC price compared to number of transactions, good indicator isn't it?:

                  How fast adoption is going on?

From Woobull.com , so far BTC users double every 12 months, let compare to others new technology adoption Curves:

The chart clearly demonstrates that new technology has been adopted faster and faster in the past, so should be Blockchain adoption and BTC as currency.

              The S Curve of Technological Adoption

In Marketing the bell curve of adoption (blue) is used to represents the exponential increase in adoption until median saturation, Yellow curve represents the total adoptive population at a given time.

Yellow line follow a logarythmic scale of adoption, given Meltcalfe's law should we expect a logarythmic BTC price increase?

Here is a chart of BTC price compared to a logarithmic projection:

This simulation give an approximative target of 5k$ for 2017 with a 0% spread, mean that a bubble could pump the price way higher or a negative spread would drop the price under the logarithmic projection line.

Average of 30k$ per BTC in 2020!

100k$ in 2024!

A lot of short to mid term events could trigger a change in the relative speed of adoption, government adoption, SEC , approved as a reserve currency, exchanges hack, chain split, no scalability resolution, governance issue, quantum technology...

                        Have a great day!

links:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=831547.0
http://bitcoinist.com/bitcoin-price-match-market-cap-gold/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metcalfe%27s_law
http://woobull.com/woos-law-of-bitcoin-user-growth-bitcoins-adoption-curve/
https://medium.com/@mcasey0827/speculative-bitcoin-adoption-price-theory-2eed48ecf7da
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=831547.0