Meditating about Ethereum (ETH)

What's "priced in" for the landmark ruling by SEC & CFTC officials May 7th on whether ETH is a security or not?   It's hard to know but weighing all sides is worthwhile. Our take, and we're not attorneys and this is not financial advice. DYOR. 

Here goes: In spite of a furious month-long rally, we think ETH will be deemed a security and though that will create lots of near-term headaches, it's a long-term positive. Simple rule: markets love clarity; they loathe uncertainty. A broader question than - is ETH a security? - is: if it's a security, will criminal charges be forthcoming? We think this is the most important question, and our belief is absent egregious behavior that is not in the public domain, there will be no criminal charges. That will be huge and that's what we think the market has concluded in the lead up to this major ruling. Hence, the big rally of late. Sure, civil suits and fines would ensue and that's a pain. This would "ripple" (pun intended) through cryptos. 

A fine - not sure how this would be levied - of less than $5B would be bullish. A $30B fine would be poorly received. If ETH is not a security. It might rally 50%; any hint of subpoenas and new lows are in play. 

The range of outcomes is wide. Never rule out a regulatory "punt", or delay, either.

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