Bitcoin (BTC / USD) Indicator shows Bitcoin at Lows after Halving? Why?

criptoar (64)in TOP 👍 or 👎 FLOP • 6 years ago

Comparing Halving 2020 with 2016 we can get clues.

Today I bring you another graphic indicator, the Bitcoin Production Cost that could give us some indications of the price.

We will see the mining capitulations marked by the Hash Ribbons indicator and the relationship with the Bitcoin Production Cost indicator.

But before, this analysis has taken me all day to gather the information, make the graphs, see the best way to expose it, I hope you appreciate it and give me your vote. Support with your Vote the good content, Always. Thank you

Let's see

As I have parameterized this indicator. I have matched the electricity values before and after halving

Indicator electricity data is from Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index (CBECI)

Parameter graph

Why after a Halving the Red interval goes up?

The price of Bitcoin as we saw after Halving has been cut by half the daily Bitcoin mined by miners.

This makes the cost go up 50% (half benefits and same expenses)

So in the graphs we see that the Red interval after the Halving is located higher.

Comparison

Graphic 2016
As we see in the 2016 graph after Halving, a red zone is generated.

The red zone is maintained for approximately 30 days. Period in which prices in the first weeks do not rise, but correct, generating a new mining capitulation.

The price of Bitcoin corrects its value by 26% in this mining capitulation, but when it is corrected, the price of the red zone does not appear.

After the same, the cost values drop (difficulty of mining, due to the mining capitulation)

The price of Bitcoin after those 30 days leaves the red zone and begins an upward cycle of the price

Graphic 2020
As we see in the 2020 chart due to the corrections that the price had since 2018 and the following bullish cycles, the Hash Ribbons indicator has indicated 3 pre-halving mining capitulations

As we see in the last mining capitulation of 2020, the price pierces all the red zones, but it does not reach the minimum of 2019

After Halving, a greater red zone is generated above the current price.

New Mining Capitulation

As we see the indicator Hash Ribbons is about to show us a new mining capitulation
This could push back the price, which is at the lower limit of the red zone.

This means that if we compare with 2016, the price is already at a minimum.
But the world pandemic situation changes everything. So the possibility of a price pullback is present.

If it had the same correction of 2016 that was 27%, the price of bitcoin could correct up to $ 7,300 dollars

Bullish Projection

If we continue to follow the cycle of 2016, in 30 days after halving we should see the price of this red zone come out, either due to a correction of the costs of mining bitcoin due to corrections of the difficulty or due to an increase in the price of bitcoin.

And what do you think, will the price of Bitcoin drop in a new Mining Capitulation?

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READ DISCLAIMER: this publication / analysis is only for general information purposes. I am not a professional trader and I will never be a financial advisor. The material in this publication does not constitute any trading advice of any kind. This is the way I see the paintings and what my ideas are.
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