Doomed by Design?
"The markets are unforgiving, and emotional trading always results in losses."
- Alexander Elder -
Weeks ago,
I wrote about what is probably a very naive trading strategy here on Steemit.
I had observed the relative value of STEEM and SBD fluctuating for a while, and wrote this article about trading one for the other in alternate directions to the greatest advantage.
Ups and Downs and... DOWNS!
Image courtesy of Chris Liverani and http://unsplash.com
I've come to wonder about my strategy.
For the last several weeks, I've watched as the value of STEEM increasingly outstrips the value of SBD. I've been waiting and waiting for the ratio to swing the other way...
Got the Trading Blues...
Image courtesy of Carlos Muza and http://unsplash.com
Am I on a fool's errand?
Is it inevitable that (speaking in very general terms) the value of SBD will continue to slide, relative to STEEM?
Have I lost my way?
Image courtesy of Fredy Martinez and http://unsplash.com
If that's really the way that SBD is designed,
and if STEEM vs SBD ecosystem is stabilizing and normalizing, then perhaps I should take my losses, and use my SBD to buy some STEEM before the ratio tanks any further...
Decisions, decisions...
I would appreciate it if someone who understands this better than I would chime in with an opinion. And, sadly, yes, that might be almost anyone because--when it comes to trading--I think I'm at the bottom of the barrel of understanding.
Thanks, friends!
~FIN~
P.S. If you have an "in" with anybody at Steemit, Inc. - Would you please ask them to get rid of these damn, extremely annoying "off-website" arrow/boxes? The have, overnight, made Steemit ugly. There are much better solutions.
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Very interesting questions, and I am too new around here to know the answers, but I do remember reading someplace a while back, that the price of Steem vs SBD swings over and back periodically... So, even though it doesn't look likely now, when Bitcoin and the other Cryptos start a bit of a bull run again, which they most likely will, the price of Steem vs SBD will move closer to parity again... Only 1 couple of months ago SBD was worth more than Steem..
Thanks. Yeah, I'm probably going to hold out a little while longer and see what happens...
The SBD price increase has mainly been attested to the volume coming out of South Korea and the Upbit exchange. South Korea in general has had some regulatory issues the past couple weeks and the volume had decreased because of it. Things are starting to pick up again as there is more clarity from the governing bodies - darn government, I know.
Bottom line, you should be ok. :)
Thanks for the insight, Lydon...
I'll hold my SBD for now and wait for a better opportunity to exchange.
I follow one simple economic principle - I never put all my eggs in one basket - that's why I spend my SBD and use 50/50 a my default setting
Sounds reasonable. Thanks for sharing your algorithm. :)
I wish I have more knowledge of it to help you understand more of it and help you decide as well on which strategy but I can't. :(
Thanks for your kind thoughts. ;)
Well if you look up the "Burn Post" that is on daily trending, it is artificially trying to push SBD down and Steem up.
Check out:
https://steemit.com/steem/@smooth/burnpost-three-month-status-and-update
Thanks for pointing that out...
It looks as if that experiment is turning out to be pretty successful. Perhaps I should bail... Or just regularly convert SBD to STEEM?
You would think that as a "geek/programmer," I'd be able to figure this stuff out. But I find myself constantly surprised and confused. Maybe it's just that I'm too busy with other things to pay close attention?
As I recall, there was a time when you could simply transfer SBD directly to STEEM on a 1 for 1 basis...
Glad my life doesn't depend on it, eh? Thanks for your input.
gah.
well... i followed you. LOLOLOL and now we're in the pickle jar together! hehehehehe
thankfully it's not life or death, as you pointed out. just a good learning experience! but...
i do wonder if i should then be changing my payouts to 100% powered up for now!!!! LOL right???
You are probably right about that! :D
THANKS for mentioning it! :D
We Steemian stock brokers must stick together lololol
For me I consider it to be a double edged sword. Clearly it is meant to help the investors/holders of SP. I consider myself an investor as I hold what I earn but do not put in other money. However it was nice as an author/creator to get that high SBD.
I know it hasn't actually worked out that way, but wasn't the whole idea with SBD that is was just supposed to be a reliable more or less fixed price currency for internal transactions? I even remember reading somewhere that SBD isn't even a "real" cryptocurrency...
But back to your question... what I've noticed is that SBD tends to move after trading volume gets truly anemic... it's getting there, right now; only about 8 BTC's worth trading on Bittrex in the past 24 hours. It's hard to "pump" a market when there's stout volume; not so much when you only need $50-100K to start a rally.
But don't listen to me! I'm generally as good at timing the market as I am at tossing darts...
I suspect I'll wait a little while more and see what happens...
Meanwhile, I'll follow @dreemsteem's recommendation to go 100% "Power Up" on my posts! :D
The investment always involves risks, the most likely thing is that the steem is more sought after by people who are outside the steemit platform, so it acquires a higher value. Also in this last week the crypto market has been with slight losses. Best regards @creatr
Thanks for commenting.
As a minnow I don't have a lot of SBDs to be concerned with this ratio yet, just getting the odd STEEM but I understand the strategy and it makes sense. For the exercise I do watch it along with a few other crypto vs crypto ratios including the Silver/gold but there's always the question how long will this last before it becomes the new 'Norm'?
Thank you for weighing in here. :)
I am on your blog for the first time. I scanned your previous titles: I give thanks for __ . You did this for some days in a row. No this current one .."Doomed by Design"
Give thanks as I see it working out for you. There is always a plan and sometimes things go in a different direction for a reason and turn out a blessing. :)
I appreciate your observation...
I didn't say I am not grateful; just concerned about the trend, and wanting to learn more about how to trade SBD and STEEM. ;)
And, I thank you as a first time visitor! Please check out my Steemit library (click the GIF below) and let me know if you have any questions? :D
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its great......i impressed to see your post......