Bitcoin Price Analysis

August 15th, 2018

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DMI

We can see that our ADX has broken well above the 25th percentile, indicative of a strengthening in trend. Our DI- continues to drop preceptiously, lending our credence that our downside potential is weak, while our DI+ continues to grow, indicating a strength in our upwards movement. What is indicicative of an entrance in this case is the cross over of the DI+ to our ADX. We are comfortable entering into position when DI+ crosses over our DI-. However it is a safer entrance when DI+ is also above our ADX. Now that this has occured we can enter into position for a long if we weren't allready inposition. However, note that the best entrance would have been earlier at the initial DI+/DI- crossover to the upside, because at the point DI+ was allready above the ADX.

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Fisher Transform

Using the value of 7 to indicate the domimant wave pattern with our Fisher's indicator. This indicator is used to predict market tops and bottoms, and in my experience is far more accurate and reliable then either Stochastic, RSI, or StochRSI. We can see how well it lines up with all the recent market moves, with generally a one candle lag. That's only a one hour lag in market cycles, giving us ample time for entry and exit. We can see that we've experienced a crossover to the upside, and a local bottom has been formed. ADX tells us that the trend is getting stronger, while Fisher tells us that the bottom locally is in.

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Longs vs Shorts

On Bitfinex, the number of longs has risen almost a thousand in the last hour to nearly 26k. Shorts are still larger at 34k, or at a distribution of 43% long to 57% short.

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TD Analysis

We successfully completed an hourly sell setup, and have now moved into a sell countdown. Green two's trading above green one's have continued to be a good entry point, especially if we correlate our entrance with our DMI indicator to understand trend strength. Remember: if we enter into the right trend, with the right position, the rest is simply risk management. To be a good trader, you must have access to the right information which is 85% of the battle.

Looking at our longer 4hr time frame, we can see that we're in a stronger TD sell setup. Our clop long indicators (the green L's) have all been reliable long entrances, and indicators of positive growth.

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Ichimoku Analysis

Ichimoku shows us that we've entered into a trending trading enviroment. We've successfully broken above not only the cloud with base price, but also our Tenken and Kijun lines. An aggressive trading strategy would be to set buys at pullbacks to our yellow Tenken line, with our stop loss below our purple Kijun line.

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I'm not a financial adviser. The information here is for education purposes. Trading and investing are wonderful things to do, and it's OK to take advice and to learn. I'm glad you're here right now reading this, educating yourself. Don't take my word as the gospel, and be careful. All investment and trading opportunities carry risk, I'm sure you reading this have the potential in you to profit from a careful trading plan, and wise investment choices. Do it right, do your research, and don't trade stupid. Very best of luck to you!.

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