Jupiler League Regular Season Final Team Rankings Report
Being able to predict the outcome of matches along with the final league table standings is something completely different compared to actually making a profit on the betting markets. It's all about being able to beat the assigned handicaps and total lines and finding the overvalued/undervalued spots. In this post, I will share all my date from this season. I also made a similar post when the season was halfway (Link)
Green background = stats vs opening lines
Yellow background = stats vs closing lines
Looking at the overall numbers it is clear that lines in general are set really sharp and that everyone just bets the Favorites and the overs making it far better to bet the under and Underdogs very late just before kick-off.
Results betting each team against the closing handicap line...
| # | Team | Profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | Sint-Truiden | +9.010 Units | +30.03% ROI |
| 02 | Waasland | +8.195 Units | +27.32% ROI |
| 03 | Moeskroen | +5.430 Units | +18.10% ROI |
| 04 | Kortrijk | +2.620 Units | +8.73% ROI |
| 05 | Charleroi | +1.880 Units | +6.27% ROI |
| 06 | Antwerp | +1.230 Units | +4.10% ROI |
| 07 | Club Brugge | -0.595 Units | -1.98% ROI |
| 08 | AA Gent | -1.680 Units | -5.60% ROI |
| 09 | Lokeren | -1.845 Units | -6.15% ROI |
| 10 | Standard | -2.089 Units | -6.96% ROI |
| 11 | Anderlecht | -2.550 Units | -8.50% ROI |
| 12 | Cercle Brugge | -2.784 Units | -9.25% ROI |
| 13 | Eupen | -4.700 Units | -15.67% ROI |
| 14 | Genk | -4.760 Units | -15.87% ROI |
| 15 | Oostende | -5.810 Units | -19.37% ROI |
| 16 | Zulte-Waregem | -8.205 Units | -49.27% ROI |
This was a year where all the top teams got overrated over the entire season with a result that there were a couple hidden gem teams like Sint-Truiden, Waasland & Moeskroen that outperformed the market on a very consistent basis. Most of them as streaks where they just covered the handicaps without having to actually win matches week after week. Getting in at those moments is a big part of being able to make a profit. It's interesting to see that the team that relegated outperformed Racing Genk who finished on top. Genk had a period where they just crushed the lines week after week early on. They got overrated especially with the drama that they faced with Pozzulo failing hard against the asian lines late in the season.
All other team stats can be found in the tables below.
Some other interesting Stats
- Best Home Team = Moeskroen (+5.24 Units)
- Best Away Team = Antwerp (+5.85 Units)
- Worst Home Team = Oostende ( -4.545 Units)
- Worst Away Team = Standard (-4.700 Units)
- Best Over Team = Zulte-Waregem (+9.015 Units)
- Best Under Team = Genk (+5.095 Units)
The Playoff will start this friday, I still have to make an overall review on my regular season and will likely have at least 1 early bet for this weekends matches.
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