Jupiler League Asian Handicap Stats (Mid-Table Teams)

in #betting6 years ago

These posts will break down some of the personal stats I'm keeping from the first 6 weeks of the Belgian Jupiler League

League totals stats


This 2nd post in the asian handicap stats breakdown from the first 6 weeks in the Belgium Jupiler League will break down the mid-table teams that are expected never to have real issues to stay in the league. (See Post Top Teams)

If anything, keeping your own stats really helps to get a much better grip on totals and find mostly great late overs live betting spots. The belgian League has been quite 1st half underish and 2nd half overish for many years (65% of goals came in 2nd half so far this season) . First half unders are always bets that are on my radard along with potential late overs. (72.9% of the matches have seen at least 1 goal after minute 72')


Zulte-Waregem

Oostende

Charleroi

Kortrijk

Sint-Truiden

Antwerp


The numbers

Zulte-Waregem have an offensive minded DNA which translates into the over bets. Often these over teams get higher lines that look scary to take while they offer plenty of value still. Oostende has a remarkable 1H/2H goal ratio with 80% of the goals in their matches scored in the 2nd half. They tend to start with a focussed defensive mindset and open up when needed or lose some focus near the end. Charleroi has been a team with very few goals for a long time but have a bit more offensive options this season and try to change their style (at least vs worse teams). This translated in some value on the over bets. Kortrijk shows completely different stats in home and away matches as all home matches went over while all away matches went under. Often times the odds are more generalised and these kind of home/away differences can produce some good value. I have been seeing Stvv as an under team so far and this also shows in the stats especially at home. Antwerp has been one of the revelations so far and are a whopping 6-0 on the under bet. These extremes can produce opportunities for a reversal or overly adjusted odds over time.


Next post will take a look at the bottom-table teams...

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Very interesting stats. Now I do understand why you bet so often on the over from minute 72 :)

I actually switched to a later point (lose a little / win a lot) and also started keeping track of stats after minute ' (still have to process those). Bookmakers have adjusted their live odds considerable the past years. We used to see 2.00 odds standard around minute 72', nowadays it is rare to see 2.00 odds around minute 75'. It's really a cat and mouse game of constantly adjusting.

I did downsize my stats excel sheet. I also had in it, how many times a team won first or second half, how much goals they did score in first and second half and of course also how many goals they did concede.
Maybe I should upgrade it again.
Will be glad when the Nations League is over and the regular competition starts again!

Impressive data collection, @costanza. soccerstats.com has some pretty good data around goals and timing of goals but definitely better to have your own resource.

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