聊聊挑战主流经济学的土耳其经济学

题图作者：cheva用AI创作

世界上的一些威权统治者，喜欢把自己装扮成天降伟人。当然，世界头号强国美国的总统拜登不在这些人当中。从他一上任开始，老年痴呆的传言就如影随形。不过这些统治者喜欢把自己装扮成天降伟人的国家里面，一般都是祖上曾经阔过的，或者本身就是大帝国的继承者，比如俄罗斯的总统普京。另外一个就是土耳其的总统埃尔多安。

土耳其的前身也是曾经地跨欧亚非的大帝国——奥斯曼帝国，其统治者名为苏丹。而阿尔多安虽然名为总统，实际上也是以苏丹自居。之前土耳其在会见外宾的时候，也曾经让自己的仪仗队换上各个历史时期的突厥武士的装束，迎接客人。令人匪夷所思的是这些卫队中还有装扮成中国历史和匈奴人的。原来在土耳其的教科书上甚至写与刘邦打过交道的匈奴冒顿单于就是他们的祖先。不过这都是树立民族自豪感，笼络人心的政治把戏而已。当然一个政权要能够支撑下去，光靠宣传祖上的光荣是不够的，还是得在经济上拿出好的成绩单，让民众的生活能够过得下去才行。那么今天就来说一说土耳其的经济。

土耳其的前身奥斯曼帝国横跨欧亚非三大大陆，在欧洲也是有大片的领土的，如今的半干岛和罗马尼亚，甚至引发俄乌战争的黑海北岸，克里米亚地区都曾经是土耳其的领土。但是一战结束后帝国解体，现在在欧洲只剩下了首都伊斯坦布尔这一小块领地。所以土耳其对自己的身份认同就有了一些矛盾，到底是亚洲国家还是欧洲国家呢?在经济上自然是想向欧洲靠拢的，而从欧盟借外债也是土耳其发展经济的主要手段。但是土耳其本身的制造业并不算发达，它比较占优势的行业是旅游业，而且粮食也不能自给自足。所以在对外贸易上，它是一个逆差很大的国家。所以通过对外贸易无法获得足够多的外汇来偿还借欧盟的债务。那么就只有一个办法就是印钱偿还。所以土耳其的货币一直是超发状态，而超发到一定程度就会引起巨幅的通货膨胀。

有一段时间土耳其里拉崩盘的消息曾经占据了世界财经新闻的主要版面，土耳其对美元的汇率在短短几个月之间跌去了一大半。但是当时埃尔多安喊出的口号就是，让大家拿出自己家里的美元和黄金支援土耳其的自己的货币。当然这种叫嚣除了真的被洗了脑，相信匈奴冒顿单于是他们祖先的极个别人之外，大部分人是赶紧回家把自己的黄金美元藏好。所以这一招完全没用，于是土耳其的央行开始按照主流经济学教科书上的操作，开始提升利息率来抑制通胀，就跟现在美联储操作一样。但是此举受到了埃尔多安的大肆抨击，与传统西方国家标榜央行的独立性，树个幌子不同。作为后发转型国家的土耳其，就朴实刚健多了，埃尔多安反对执行加息政策，央行行长不听话，怎么办？那就直接换一个，换上来一个央行行长发现，不加息通胀控制不住，还是提议加息。埃尔多安又把它给换掉了，一连换了好几个，最后终于找到一个完全听话的。埃尔多安反对加息的原因，一方面是因为他年幼的时候出身贫寒，当过小贩，对高利贷深恶痛绝。另一方面也是土耳其的主要宗教——伊斯兰教教义里面也是反对用钱生钱的，认为借钱收取利息是罪恶的。

在终于找到了能够完全服从的央行行长之后，终于可以实行所谓的埃尔多安经济学，也就是降息治理通胀。其实话说回来，那些坚持加息的央行行长，虽然是按照主流经济学教科书行事，但加息也未必是正确的。当然埃尔多安是利息为罪恶，也是矫枉过正。所谓利率只不过是向人借钱所付出的价钱而已，就像买东西也要付出相应的价钱。商品的价格应该是随市场波动的，如果人为的控制利率，实际上就是在强制操纵价格，这样必然会使有的人的利益受损而破坏市场经济的运行。而强制降息维持低利率的反向操作，同样的道理，也是具有破坏性的。

但是不管怎样经过了这一年多来的实践，埃尔多安经济学似乎打败了主流经济，在2022年土耳其的股市上涨了50%，GDP也增长了5%，这个速度远远超过大部分国家，只有东南亚的越南可以与之一比。但是经济学的统计数据实际上是没有什么意义的，那些利益受到损害的群体，从数字上是看不到的。因为在光鲜的数字下面，一个冰冷的事实是，大量的土耳其的年轻人都想离开这个国家，每年有几十万的土耳其人去到欧洲和其他地方。真实的生活到底怎样只有每个人自己知道，这些是无法从经济学统计数字上看到的，与其关注数字，可以用脚投票的人都在哪里才是一个国家经济状况最好的晴雨表。

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Some of the world's authoritarian rulers like to dress up as heavenly giants. Of course, Biden, the president of the United States, the world's number one power, is not among these people. From the moment he took office, rumors of brain dementia have been with him. However, these countries that like to dress themselves as heavenly giants are generally rich in their ancestors, or they are inheritors of great empires.
For example, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and the other is Turkey's President Waldogan. Turkey's predecessor is also the Ottoman Empire that once emigrated Europe, Asia and Africa, and its ruler is Sudan. Although Aldoan is known as President, in fact, he also considers himself Sudan. When Turkey met with foreign guests, Turkey also asked its honor guard to change into the costume of Turkic warriors of various historical periods to greet the guests.
What is incredible is that the oldest can be traced back to the Huns. In Turkish textbooks, it is even written about the remnants of the Xiongnu Mao Dun, and the remnants of the Xiongnu Mao Dun, who dealt with Liu Bang, are their ancestors, but this is all a political trick to build up a sense of national pride. it's just a political trick to win the hearts of the people. of course, if a regime can survive, it still has to produce a good report card economically.
Let's talk about Turkey's economy today. Turkey's predecessor, the Ottoman Empire, straddled the three continents of Europe, Asia and Africa, and also had large tracts of territory in Europe. Today's semi-dry islands and Romania, even Crimea, which triggered the Russian-Ukrainian War, and Crimea on the north shore of the Black Sea, were once Turkish territory, but the empire disintegrated after World War I.
Now there is only a small piece of territory left in Europe, Istanbul, the capital, so he has some contradictions about his identity. Is it an Asian country or an European country? he naturally wants to move closer to Europe economically, and the foreign debt borrowed from the European Union is also the main means for Turkey to develop its economy, but Turkey's own manufacturing industry is not developed, and its dominant industry is tourism.
Moreover, it is not self-sufficient in grain, so in foreign trade, it is a country with a large deficit, so it cannot obtain enough foreign exchange to repay the debt borrowed from the European Union through foreign trade, so the only way is to print money to repay it. So Turkey's currency has always been overissued, and to a certain extent, it will cause huge inflation.
For a time, the news of the collapse of Nila in Turkey occupied the main page of the world financial news. Turkey's exchange rate against the US dollar fell by more than half in just a few months, but the slogan Erdogan shouted at that time was to ask people to take out their own dollars and gold to support Turkey's own currency. Of course, apart from being brainwashed to believe that the Huns were haunting their ancestors.
Apart from a few people, most people hurried home to hide their gold dollars, so this trick was completely useless, so Turkey's central bank began to raise interest rates in accordance with the operation in economics textbooks to curb inflation. just like the Fed operates now, but this move has been strongly criticized by Erdogan, which is different from the traditional Western countries that boast the independence of central banks and the cover of central bank independence.
Turkey, as a late-developing country in transition, is much more simple and robust. Erdogan opposes the policy of raising interest rates, and the central bank governor is disobedient, so what should we do? instead, a central bank governor found that inflation could not be controlled without raising interest rates. Erdogan still proposed to raise interest rates. Erdogan replaced it again, several times a year, and finally found a completely obedient one. Erdogan opposed raising interest rates.
On the one hand, it is because he was born poor when he was young, worked as a peddler and hated usury, on the other hand, it is also the main religion in Turkey, Islam is also opposed, and the doctrine of Kislan is also opposed to using money to generate money. I think that it is evil to borrow money and charge interest, of course, it does not mean that after we have finally found a central bank governor who can fully obey.
Finally, we can implement the so-called Erdogan economics, that is, cutting interest rates to control inflation. in fact, although those central bank governors who insist on raising interest rates are in the form of economics textbooks, raising interest rates may not be correct or correct. the so-called interest rate is only the so-called interest rate, of course, Erdogan is the evil interest rate, but also overkill, the so-called interest rate is just the price paid for borrowing money.
Just like buying things, you have to pay the corresponding price, the price of the commodity should fluctuate with the market, if you artificially control the interest rate, you are actually forced to manipulate the price, which will inevitably damage the interests of some people. The reverse operation of forcing interest rate cuts to maintain low interest rates is also destructive, but after more than a year of practice anyway.
Erdogan economics seems to beat the mainstream economy. In 2002, Turkey's stock market rose by 50% and GDP by 5%, which is much faster than that of most countries, and only Vietnam in Southeast Asia can compare with one. But the statistics of economics are actually meaningless, and it will not see those groups whose interests have been harmed, which can not be seen from the numbers, because although under the glamorous figures.
A cold fact is that a large number of young people in Turkey want to leave the country. Hundreds of thousands of Turks go to Europe and other places every year. Only everyone knows what real life is like. These cannot be counted from medical figures. Instead of focusing on the numbers, where people who can vote with their feet is the best barometer of a country.