Peerplays Technical Price Analysis

Now that we eagerly await the release of the genesis block on May 31st, a mere 10 days away. I took some time to analyse the relationship of price to market cap given the initial maximum supply amount. I have figured in a shaving off of almost 500,000 coins from unminted tiers 3 and 4. When the crowd fund closed tier two was at about 98% sold out so there maybe a tiny amount off, but this will wind up being pretty close to the starting supply. This also doesn't take into account that much of the tokens will be frozen at the start as well. Obviously people who have frozen tokens can't offer supply to fill the demand, this might artificially yield a higher market capitalization.

Here you can see how the price drifts from those unminted coins, however a market capitalization at the top end is very unlikely. It would be akin to where ethereum and ripple are right now in market capitalization.

Here we can see a closer view of the breakdown, we can see how much value unminted coins will bring to the crowdfund participants.

Here is a look at what price a given market capitalization should yield based off likelyhood, with orange being the median market capitalization for top 20 cryptocurrencies. I personally think we will see a 50-75M starting market cap, which will quickly build up to 250M based on speculation and FOMO. There is a strong possibility that if the casinos don't get released soon enough people will get bored of not collecting fees and take profits. Given the aggressive time frame from the developers to release games and casinos through the end of the year, there may be enough sustained excitement to keep the price up.