MLB DFS 4/28/18 - Winning Plays
Hey All,
It's been a couple weeks since I posted anything related to DFS and I apologize but things have been a bit crazy. We are now almost a month into the MLB season, so we are starting to see some viable stats come into play that will help us better decide how to set lineups. It still is a bit early for pitching as we only have 20-30 innings per pitcher to focus on for 2018 stats (when adjusted by split) but for batters we can now focus solely on 2018 stats. Hopefully over the next couple of days I will post a couple articles content related articles and explain my process so far as I have actually had a ton of success early in the 2018 MLB DFS season.
Similar to the articles I published on NBA, these articles will focus solely on MLB DFS plays for a particular slate. Unlike NBA, I am splitting these articles up into pitching and stacks but will also add a random value play ($3,000 or under). Personally, I mostly play GPP type tournaments so stacking several players from one team is a strategy I never go without. Stacking (choosing several players from 1 lineup) is a great strategy to help eliminate some of the variance that exists in baseball where you can focus on picking a team that might go off vs. individual players.
All pricing will be based off Fanduel’s settings, as this is currently my favorite platform. Stats are derived primarily from FanGraphs with some random exceptions such as ESPN.
If you haven’t already, feel free to follow my referral links and sign up for Fanduel and Draftkings:
- https://www.fanduel.com/?invitedby=haleyi14&cnl=mgdb (free $10 signup bonus)
- https://draftkings.com/r/Yinzer724 (25% signup bonus)
Enjoy and please comment with thoughts and suggestions.
Photo Courtesy of The San Diego Union-Tribune
For this article we will be focusing on tonights main slate of MLB. There are a total of 8 games slated for tonight. As of this writing, your 3 highest team totals are Kansas City (5.66), Houston (5.39), and Chicago White Sox (4.84). The bottom 3 project team totals include San Francisco (3.39), New York Mets (3.48), and LA Dodgers (3.61). Keep an eye on these totals as they frequently change and are very important tool in determining which stacks to include in your lineups.
In my opinion, tonight is pretty difficult slate to navigate. Pitching is somewhat up the air with no true stud or ace to focusing on. I will not be going heavy tonight and likely will play it somewhat conservative. Confidence rating 5/10.
Pitching
As mentioned, pitching is rather difficult tonight. The two good pitchers available tonight are Houston's Lance McCullers and LA Dodgers Alex Wood. However, neither pitcher is in a great spot and likely will eat up a ton of ownership. I focus a lot on ownership and thus likely will fade McCullers. There are a couple pitchers in good spots tonight but they are far from your everyday household named guys. Keeping this all in mind, the two guys you will see me play are listed below.
Alex Wood - LA Dodgers - $8,900
Alex Wood faces off against the San Francisco Giants tonight and is the best spot for an above average pitcher. The left-hander has been up and down so far this year but had an awesome season for the Dodgers last year and in general has been a really solid pitcher throughout his career. As mentioned, there really isn't enough data for 2018 to rely on for pitchers yet, but if you look at the 2017 season through present, Wood has been really excellent. He has held opponents to a wOBA split of .266/.260 (left handers / right handers) with a decent strikeout rate of 23%/25%. Most of all he has kept the ball in the ballpark with a HR/9 split rate of .57/.94. His xFIP also suggests the numbers are real as he is currently sitting at an excellent split of 2.97/3.38.
The Giants on the other had have really struggled offensively this year ranking 28th in total runs scored 21st in batting average, 28th in on base percentage, and 24th in slugging. All terrible numbers for a team that made some pretty significant offseason moves to improve their offense. When digging into the stats a little further, advanced metrics point to the Giants being just plain terrible, especially vs. left handed pitchers. For 2018 the Giants are posting a WRC+ of 83 (ranked 22), .287 wOBA (ranked 26), .144 ISO (ranked 16), and a 25% strikeout rate (8th worse). This is surprising since the Giants primarily deploy a right handed heavy lineup.
Couple Woods excellence with the Giants inability to really do anteing vs. left handers and I think Alex Wood is your safest pitcher to pay for tonight. As a final note, the game is being played in San Francisco which is widely known as a pitchers park only adding to the play of Wood tonight.
Joey Lucchesi - San Diego Padres - $8,400
This play is primarily based on the matchup rather than the Lucchesi himself as I'll be the first to admit, I have no idea who he really is. In general, Lucchesi has been ehhh this year, showing a little upside (2 - 52 point performances) with some major downside (8 and 15 point performances). He has had a pretty decent minor league career but nothing that is suggests he is going to be a stud one day. His limited career MLB numbers do look good so far as he has a wOBA split (left hander/right hander) of .229/.298 with a strikeout split rate of 35%/24%. His xFIP split is sitting at 1.19/4.13. It's not surprising that he has shown better numbers vs. left handers than right handers as he is a southpaw himself.
The primary reason for playing Lucchesi has more to do with the matchup vs. the New York Mets who has been one of the worst teams to start 2018 vs. left handers. Their lineup is left hander heavy where they almost always deploy the likes of Conforto, Bruce, and Cabrera and often also include players like Nimmo, Reyes, and Gonzalez. All of whom are left handed hitters that offer a ton of strikeout potential. It's pretty crazy to see them as one of the elite teams vs. right handed pitchers but also one of the worst lineups vs. left handers. As a team for 2018, the Mets have a 77 wRC+ (ranked 24), .279 wOBA (ranked 27), .082 ISO (worst), and a strikeout rate of 26% (ranked 6th worst) all vs. left handers. It's simply for this reason that I really like Lucchesi a chance tonight to attack the high strikeout rate / low power Mets lineup. Oh and similar to the Giants, the Padres home stadium is very pitchers friendly only adding to the love for Lucchesi tonight. You can probably expect to get him at a lower ownership than Wood, all things considered.
Stacks
There are several interesting stacks tonight to consider. Below are my top 5 stacks tonight with a small summary of why. I have to admit, in general tonight is a very difficult night to piece together so be careful. Much of what I mention below is based on my willingness to take some risk and try to play contrarian to the field. The Houston Astros and Kansas City Royals have the highest team totals, so you can expect ownership to flood to those teams, and for this reason I am avoiding them. I tried to rank them in order but this could change throughout the day based on run line totals, weather, and lineups being released.
- Colorado Rockies
- There isn't a ton of data available on tonights Miami Marlins pitcher Chad Smith but what we do have is not that promising. The left hander had a really excellent 10 strikeout 6 inning performance in Miluakee in his last start but other than that he has been average at best. He has in particular been getting hit pretty hard by right handers with advanced metrics showing a wOBA of .344 and xFIP of 5.07. Both pretty terrible. More interestingly, Smith currently supports a 2.17 HR/9 which we love to see in DFS. Yes, the sample size is very small and yes, the game is in Miami which is considered a pitchers park (especially when the roof is closed) but I think we have an opportunity to attack him here with some very good right handed bats. For the stack I am interested in:
- Chris Iannetta - $2,500
- DJ LeMahieu - $3,600
- Nolan Arenado - $4,300
- Trevor Story - $3,800
- Ian Desmond - $2,700
- There isn't a ton of data available on tonights Miami Marlins pitcher Chad Smith but what we do have is not that promising. The left hander had a really excellent 10 strikeout 6 inning performance in Miluakee in his last start but other than that he has been average at best. He has in particular been getting hit pretty hard by right handers with advanced metrics showing a wOBA of .344 and xFIP of 5.07. Both pretty terrible. More interestingly, Smith currently supports a 2.17 HR/9 which we love to see in DFS. Yes, the sample size is very small and yes, the game is in Miami which is considered a pitchers park (especially when the roof is closed) but I think we have an opportunity to attack him here with some very good right handed bats. For the stack I am interested in:
- LA Angels
- The Angels are in an interesting spot tonight facing a home run prone Masahiro Tanaka at home. I try to avoid home teams for stacks as much as possible for the simple reason they aren't guaranteed an extra at bat in the 9th inning but the Angels have shown a ton of upside this year in terms of offense, especially early on. Tanaka's numbers since 2017 aren't the best and the stats show he can be hit from either side of the plate. The argument in his favor is that he offers a lot in terms of strikeouts and the Angels park is a much better pitchers haven than his home park with the Yankees. However, the Angels are one of the lowest strikeout lineups in 2018 ranking in the top 3 of MLB in terms of % at 19.7%, so that should mitigate Tanakas strikeouts. Tanaka does offer some really nasty stuff as evident by his high strikeout numbers but more often than not he leaves a few very hittable pitchers over the plate that get taken yard. His HR/9 split is 1.57/1.87 which is really bad especially considering we have a very large sample size. There is some risk but you should be able to get an Angels stack low owned tonight thats should include:
- Mike Trout - $5,400
- Justin Upton - $3,700
- Kole Calhoun - $2,300
- Shohei Ohtani - $3,800
- The Angels are in an interesting spot tonight facing a home run prone Masahiro Tanaka at home. I try to avoid home teams for stacks as much as possible for the simple reason they aren't guaranteed an extra at bat in the 9th inning but the Angels have shown a ton of upside this year in terms of offense, especially early on. Tanaka's numbers since 2017 aren't the best and the stats show he can be hit from either side of the plate. The argument in his favor is that he offers a lot in terms of strikeouts and the Angels park is a much better pitchers haven than his home park with the Yankees. However, the Angels are one of the lowest strikeout lineups in 2018 ranking in the top 3 of MLB in terms of % at 19.7%, so that should mitigate Tanakas strikeouts. Tanaka does offer some really nasty stuff as evident by his high strikeout numbers but more often than not he leaves a few very hittable pitchers over the plate that get taken yard. His HR/9 split is 1.57/1.87 which is really bad especially considering we have a very large sample size. There is some risk but you should be able to get an Angels stack low owned tonight thats should include:
- Baltimore Orioles
- My rule of Orioles opponent tonight Lirano is simple, start him if he is facing a terrible, high strikeout team as he offers a ton of upside. Any other team, stack against him because he sucks. Thats the case tonight. Baltimore hasn't been the best offensive team but does have some major right handed power hitters who are just now starting to heat up. Liriano has a really bad split where righties have a .367 wOBA against him and below average 18% strikeout rate. He also casts a 5.45 xFIP vs. right handers and is giving up 1.22 HR/9 to the opposite side of the plate since 2017. Stack right handed power from Baltimore and you should see nice return.
- Manny Machado - $4,600
- Adam Jones - $3,400
- Trey Mancini - $3,100
- My rule of Orioles opponent tonight Lirano is simple, start him if he is facing a terrible, high strikeout team as he offers a ton of upside. Any other team, stack against him because he sucks. Thats the case tonight. Baltimore hasn't been the best offensive team but does have some major right handed power hitters who are just now starting to heat up. Liriano has a really bad split where righties have a .367 wOBA against him and below average 18% strikeout rate. He also casts a 5.45 xFIP vs. right handers and is giving up 1.22 HR/9 to the opposite side of the plate since 2017. Stack right handed power from Baltimore and you should see nice return.
The next two stacks are very risky and plays that should probably only be considered in very large GPPs.
- Pittsburgh Pirates
- The Pirates offense started off the year on fire thanks to a younger, revamped lineup that includes some big contributions from left handers such as Bell and Dickerson. Although the offense has slowed down a bit over the last week, they still rank 6th in runs scored, 7th in batting average, and 8th in slugging. Tonight they face a young, inexperienced St. Louis pitcher by the name of Jack Flaherty. He has 1 start under his belt where is pitched very well in Milwaukee striking out 9 across 5 innings of 1 run ball. He is on the road again tonight vs. a Pirates team that keeps the ball in play and does not strike out much at all (20.1% ranked 4th best in MLB). Pittsburgh is middle of the road vs. right handers in almost every category ranking right in the middle of the pack in terms of wOBA, ISO, and wRC+. Nothing special but when they do produce runs it seems to come in bunches and by the left handed pitchers. So far, in a limited sample size, it appears Flaherty struggles against left handers. If you really want to take some risk that comes with some major upside consider the pirates at home.
- Josh Bell - $3,200
- Colin Moran - $2,700
- Gregory Polanco - $3,700
- Corey Dickerson - $3,600
- The Pirates offense started off the year on fire thanks to a younger, revamped lineup that includes some big contributions from left handers such as Bell and Dickerson. Although the offense has slowed down a bit over the last week, they still rank 6th in runs scored, 7th in batting average, and 8th in slugging. Tonight they face a young, inexperienced St. Louis pitcher by the name of Jack Flaherty. He has 1 start under his belt where is pitched very well in Milwaukee striking out 9 across 5 innings of 1 run ball. He is on the road again tonight vs. a Pirates team that keeps the ball in play and does not strike out much at all (20.1% ranked 4th best in MLB). Pittsburgh is middle of the road vs. right handers in almost every category ranking right in the middle of the pack in terms of wOBA, ISO, and wRC+. Nothing special but when they do produce runs it seems to come in bunches and by the left handed pitchers. So far, in a limited sample size, it appears Flaherty struggles against left handers. If you really want to take some risk that comes with some major upside consider the pirates at home.
- Oakland Athletics
- Look, this is just plain dumb, but sometimes it takes something like this to take down a major tournament. We know a couple things. McCullers is a really really good pitcher with major strikeout upside and is favored tonight at home. We know McCullers will also likely be chalk as a result. What we also know is when he struggles, which isn't often, it is because of walks. The Oakland A's surprisingly are one of the best teams in 2018 vs. right hand pitchers. They literally rank top 2 in most metrics including a 124 wRC+ (ranked 2) and .353 wOBA (ranked 3) vs. right handers. They are also middle of the pack in terms of strikeouts at 22.7%. The theory here in stacking Oakland is simple. I'm not playing McCullers because 1) he will be chalk and 2) he is facing one of the better lineups so far vs. right handers. So if everyone else is playing McCullers why not take wild chance and stack against him? If Oakland truly is a top tier team vs. right handers and McCullers gives up a few walks, we could be sitting pretty with a super contrarian lineup. It's risky but sometimes thats what it takes. You'd want to consider......
- Matt Olson - $3,000
- Jed Lowrie - $4,000
- Khris Davis - $4,300
- Matt Joyce - $2,600
- Look, this is just plain dumb, but sometimes it takes something like this to take down a major tournament. We know a couple things. McCullers is a really really good pitcher with major strikeout upside and is favored tonight at home. We know McCullers will also likely be chalk as a result. What we also know is when he struggles, which isn't often, it is because of walks. The Oakland A's surprisingly are one of the best teams in 2018 vs. right hand pitchers. They literally rank top 2 in most metrics including a 124 wRC+ (ranked 2) and .353 wOBA (ranked 3) vs. right handers. They are also middle of the pack in terms of strikeouts at 22.7%. The theory here in stacking Oakland is simple. I'm not playing McCullers because 1) he will be chalk and 2) he is facing one of the better lineups so far vs. right handers. So if everyone else is playing McCullers why not take wild chance and stack against him? If Oakland truly is a top tier team vs. right handers and McCullers gives up a few walks, we could be sitting pretty with a super contrarian lineup. It's risky but sometimes thats what it takes. You'd want to consider......
That's it. Hope you enjoyed. Good luck tonight and lets win some money!