Kishida may call snap election to halt rise of rival Nippon Ishin

anurag1 (26)in #japan • last year

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s low popularity ratings have made it difficult for him to dissolve parliament and hold an election in the coming months out of concern of a voter backlash against the ruling Liberal Democratic Party.
But despite those worries, Kishida might still decide to call a snap election in the hopes of catching rival party Nippon Ishin no Kai unprepared and put a stop to its efforts to become a “second LDP” — or the second party in a two-party system.

Due to public anger over the My Number insurance card problems, Kishida’s poll numbers this month are dismal. A Jiji Press poll taken from Aug. 4 to 7 showed his Cabinet support rate at just 26.6%; 47.4% said they did not support him. An NHK poll conducted from Aug. 11 to 13 showed his support rate at 33%, with a 45% disapproval rate.

NHK’s poll on the major political parties still shows the LDP far ahead of Nippon Ishin in terms of popularity (34.1% versus Nippon Ishin’s 4.8%). But in April’s local elections, Nippon Ishin won 775 seats, well exceeding its pre-election goal of 600 seats. It also won a Lower House seat in the Wakayama by-election that same month. The local party continues to slowly expand its base nationwide, winning all five seats it contested in last month’s Sendai assembly elections.

Building a nationwide presence with strong local chapters is key to how Nippon Ishin will fare in a national election. If or when Kishida decides to hold an election, it will likely be with Nippon Ishin — and those who might vote for them — on his mind, rather than other, more traditional parties, says Masato Kamikubo, a political science professor at Ritsumeikan University.

“The next Lower House election will be a historic one. It will see the LDP fight a right-wing party, Nippon Ishin no Kai, as its main enemy instead of left-wing opposition parties. The traditional right-left opposition political structure in Japanese politics has already disappeared. The new competition will be between reform parties (like Nippon Ishin) and 'catch-all' parties like the LDP, which has managed to absorb a wide range of conservatives and liberals,” Kamikubo said.

Nippon Ishin no Kai head Nobuyuki Baba speaks to reporters in Tokyo on July 26.
Nippon Ishin no Kai head Nobuyuki Baba speaks to reporters in Tokyo on July 26. | KYODO
Therefore, the prime minister may consider holding a snap election before Nippon Ishin is ready to strongly challenge LDP candidates, he added.

But Kishida first needs to figure out how to recover his standing in the polls to a level where he and the LDP might feel more confident about holding an election and beating weak or ill-prepared Nippon Ishin candidates. A Cabinet reshuffle and senior LDP leadership changes, expected this autumn, would be one way to do that.

Kamikubo says Kishida faces two big challenges for the Cabinet reshuffle: what to do about his close adviser, Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary Seiji Kihara, who is caught up in a political scandal involving his wife’s alleged involvement in the death of a Tokyo man in 2006, and whether the prime minister can bring in personnel who are popular with the public.

“If this can be done and his public support goes up, Kishida may decide it’s reasonable to hold an early general election,” Kamikubo says.

Despite his low ratings, Kishida appears to face no immediate threats from within his own party. Nor are the main party factions, whose members constitute the majority of the party votes, in a position to force him to step down.

Challenges to Kishida’s leadership could come from either a small faction led by former LDP Secretary-General Toshihiro Nikai or a group loyal to former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga. The latter in particular might draw Kishida’s attention, once again for reasons relating to Nippon Ishin, and get him thinking about whether it might be better to call an election sooner rather than later.

“Suga was once close to Nippon Ishin, and Nippon Ishin's leader Nobuyuki Baba has said Nippon Ishin is the second LDP. Baba may decide to approach Suga, a reformist whose thinking is close to Nippon Ishin,” Kamikubo says.

The next general election is currently scheduled for 2025. However, Kishida is more likely to call a snap election if he decides that whatever the political risks of an early election, the greater danger is continuing to wait and allow opponents in and out of the LDP to gather more strength.

KEYWORDS
NIPPON ISHIN NO KAI, FUMIO KISHIDA, LDP, DIET, LOWER HOUSE, NOBUYUKI BABA, YOSHIHIDE SUGA, TOSHIHIRO NIKAI
Prime Minister Fumio Kishida visits a company that makes temperature sensors, in the city of Toyama on Aug. 10. | Pool / via Kyodo　
Nippon Ishin no Kai head Nobuyuki Baba speaks to reporters in Tokyo on July 26. | kyodo
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Kishida may call snap election to halt rise of rival Nippon Ishin

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