COUNTER-TREND RALLY

We finally have a cross-over on the 2-week MACD indicator at the beginning of this year and it is worth maintaining because whenever this cross-over crosses below the zero line, it's a very strong bullish signal. Of course, any signal has a potential false signal but that is well used to do some risk management. We can give the MACD signal a benefit of the doubt leading toward the bullish sign on Bitcoin as long as we can stay above the January lows near $17,000, which means the bulls are remaining in control. Even if we see a pullback in the short term that leads to the daily averages but ultimately we are looking for higher levels.

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I don't think it is likely we going to see an all-time higher this year but we could see a counter-trend rally. It does seem to me that there is a counter-trend rally, we are retracing some of that decline from last year. One of the first-like levels we could reach if we use the Fibonacci retracement is 38.2%. After a decline, the price at least retraces back to the Fibonacci level and it is about $27,400. The next above that is 50% which is $32,700 and if the price were to get significantly above the $17,400 level, it could potentially go to 50% retracement at $32,000. About that level where have that 61% golden ratio retracement of $39,000, that is the next replacement level. I am not saying it going to every single one of those retracement levels but the first level is more likely which is 38.2%.

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As long as the price can stay above the support level at 17k, the bulls are in control. My next target is going to be that 27,400 level, let's see how bitcoin does at that level, and that going to be a test for Bitcoin. We going to be watching those 27,400 levels with great interest, which is going to give us a lot of information. Let see how Bitcoin gets above that level and whether it will succeed in breaking through or fail completely. We don't know and we don't have clue yet and that is going to be a big test for Bitcoin at the $27,400 to maybe $30,000 level.